Take the 2-minute tour ×
Poker Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for serious players and enthusiasts of poker. It's 100% free, no registration required.

I'm not sure how to frame this so I'll just post the hand and you can say what you want about it.

Villain was 18/16/5 AF; 3B 11(7/63); Squeeze 18(2/11) over ~160 hands. I believe he understands how to use position to his advantage. I flat Preflop as I believed he or the BB would squeeze a decent amount of the time with worse.


NL100 FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: 234.48 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 107.66 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 69.66 BB
Hero (CO): 169.85 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamonds: K:spades:

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, BTN raises to 13 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 10 BB

Flop: (30.5 BB, 2 players) 4:clubs: 3:clubs: 6:diamonds:
Hero checks, BTN bets 19 BB, Hero raises to 38 BB, BTN calls 19 BB

Turn: (106.5 BB, 2 players) 4:diamonds:

Note: Villain tanked calling the turn.

Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (106.5 BB, 2 players) 5:clubs:
Hero bets 118.85 BB...

or Not?!

share|improve this question
    
wow, that board is all over the place. Straight draws, flush draws, sets, full houses, over pairs... Though, I assume that most of these are outside the villain's range... –  Radu Murzea Feb 9 '13 at 21:04
    
For me it looks like possibly a small pocket pair but to be honest with a board like that it would be pretty hard to say. –  hmmmm Feb 10 '13 at 18:01
add comment

6 Answers

4-bet would be good if you were 100BB deep. But 170BB effective? You'd have to fold to a 5-bet, which is gross.

As played, your perceived range hits that board way harder than villain. You have mid PPs and suited connectors so often that villain is going to fold plenty better hands than yours; and you could safely fold to any reraises -- he's very rarely bluffing given your range.

Your 3bet on the flop has made the stack sizes a bit awkward. Donking the flop sends much the same message while leaving room for a second and third barrel.

From this position you can continue on the turn (expecting to win right there, but folding to a RR). If it gets the river after firing 2 barrels you have a decision to make - if villain has hit his flush he's not going to fold to a river shove; but you get everything up to a set to fold (not that he has a set that often) . Without a specific read, I think you can get most of villain's range to fold here, so a shove is profitable, though expect to lose some 25-35% percent of the time.

share|improve this answer
add comment

Pre-flop

I don't think he'll re-raise the UTG opener (+ a caller) here that often with a mediocre / bad hand in this spot that often as a squeeze play. If he's aware of position, he'll more likely re-raise a MP or late opener. An UTG raise usually represents genuine strength. After his 3-bet there's ~20BB in the pot. Calling would increase it to ~30BB and put you out of position. I'd 4-bet him to ~40/45BB. He'll likely 5-bet you with a monster. If I decide to flat with AK I'll make sure I'm in position, out of position I want to take the pot right there.

Flop

If I just flatted with AK out of position and missed I'd probably give up at this point. This flop probably missed him too, depending on his c-betting percentage / aggression I might float and try to take it from him on a later street. You can use a flush scare card to your advantage should it arrive, but min-raising him makes this less believable. Just calling would make it more likely. Don't think you can rep a straight here often.

Calling pre-flop and min-raising him here, he'll likely put you on a medium overpair 77 - TT, maybe even JJ. Most flush draws would probably just call, but always a chance you are semi-bluffing with one. Min-raise also comes accross kind of weak. You probably would have raised more with a strong hand (set of 6's for instance).

He just calls, if he has a set he'll most likely be holding 66. Would expect him to come over the top with it. Also would expect him to just call on the button with a small pair hoping to spike a set. For now I'm putting him on overpair TT+, or a strong flush draw A:clubs:K:clubs:, A:clubs:Q:clubs:....

Turn

That 4 likely did not help him or you. You don't mention any action on the turn and your shove on the river is equal to what you have left at this point (118.85BB), so I'm assuming it went check - check. Your checking basically announces that you were semi-bluffing and missed the flush. Most medium overpairs would have bet, but he can't rule it out yet. Maybe you were just intending to check-call for pot control fearing a bigger overpair.

River

The flush arrives. Slight overbet, but not that much. His range is mostly likely TT++, or a flush.

Let's assume he'll only 3-bet AK, AQ of clubs (if he has the flush). Other 3-bet hands might ofcourse include JJ+, AK / AQ of other suits...etc.

  • 16 ways to be dealt AK and also 16 for AQ, totalling 32 hands. But ofcourse only two of those are AK / AQ of clubs. Leaving only 2 hands.
  • 5 possible overpairs (TT++), 6 ways to be dealt each one. Resulting in 30 hands.
  • He's not bluffing here IMHO.

That gives a total of 32 possible hands of which you are beating none. You can shove to represent the flush, he'll be hardpressed to call if he doesn't have it himself. But it's basically the only way you can win at this point. He'll most likely bet his flush, which you can't call and he'll check his overpair.

So his range consists out of overpairs for the most parts, flush is a smaller part. I think you are getting stacked here most of the time. Your line comes across as weak. Call, call 3-bet, min-raised low flop, check, shove. Think he will call here a lot of times thinking his overpair beats yours or put you outright on a bluff.

Update: Some edits as I miscounted the AK / AQ combos.

share|improve this answer
add comment

Substantially misplayed on every street. If you flatted to get squeezed preflop, the absolute best response here is a sizable 4-bet, intending to fold to a 5-bet. You'll risk ~40BB to pick up 20BB, and you'll know exactly where you stand.

share|improve this answer
add comment

I don't think there's anything wrong with betting there as I think he has a worst hand than you do, although I'm not completely sure about the over bet on the river, I don't see the point as you're only going to get called or raised with better hands and a 3/4 pot bet would achieve the same effect with less risk.

If I was the villain I would be putting you on a hand, either 7++ or A6 (this one unlikely). And I'm putting the villain in something like AJ, AQ, AK, probably AK.

The thing is you're not likely to throw him out of the hand if he has something like 88+, you can't face a raise with that board no matter what unless you're nuts so basically with that in mind he will either call hands better than yours or fold any worst hand.

What you want is for him to call with worst hands which he's likely to do with something like AQ if you bet 3/4 (75-80BB) of the pot and, in the event that he has a better hand you'll lose less chips. Take into account he's not likely to shove in that spot, not even with 99 or similar, and if he does you can rest assured he has the best hand. In addition a smaller bet looks way more strong than a shove.

The only situation in which I think he might call 80BB and fold to 113BB is if he has aces but if he'd had that hand he would have shoved in the flop to avoid variance. Definitively given the way the hand has been played I'm putting him on ace hing.

Some additional notes:

  • Any overpair wouln't have checked the turn with two flush draws out there, if you have an overpair you want to take down that hand then and there.
  • If you have JJ++ except AA all the more reason for that.
  • That narrows it down to hands like AQ+ and a steal so any hand like 89s, TJ, etc...
share|improve this answer
add comment

Honestly, after that check/raise on the flop, just for image conservation i would bet about 40~60 BB on the Turn , it might have the same effect you want but with less cost.

If you dont like that option, then check/fold on river depending on the bet of villain

A pair of thoughts:

  • I might check/raised about 50bb on flop, enought for getting the right information. I think check/raising that amount makes folding every hand below yours.

  • What about check/raising on the turn instead of flop, just for mix your play? i think it puts more pressure on villain, and gives you more chances to represent a made hand.

Hope you find it interesting...

share|improve this answer
add comment

It looks to me like he has some sort of pocket pair, or a hand similar to your AK. I think he tanks once he realises that there is a straight draw on the board.

I think you are probably behind and he might call your bluff. So i think I would check/fold.

What was the outcome?

share|improve this answer
    
results? I'll add them later. –  Toby Booth Feb 9 '13 at 22:18
2  
we are waiting, for the end of this interesting hand –  Cuadrunga Feb 15 '13 at 17:44
    
You can't possibly be worried about being called by 5-7 after raising to 13BB... I don't think he tanked because he realized the straight in the flop, I think he planned on taking down the pot with the CBet and the raise made him think and take a poket pair into consideration. –  Jorge Córdoba Feb 20 '13 at 14:26
add comment

Your Answer

 
discard

By posting your answer, you agree to the privacy policy and terms of service.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.