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Deep stacked with the MP. Our hand is the 2nd nuts. Obviously, I have no reads so the question is do you think this is ever anything that I can beat? Is it worth the money to call?


$1.00 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 298.9 bb (VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3Bet Preflop: 7)
SB: 117.9 bb (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 134)
BB: 101.5 bb (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 55.56, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)
UTG: 62.3 bb (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: 279.8 bb (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 116.7 bb (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 bb) Hero has 6:diamonds: 5:diamonds:
fold, MP calls 1 bb, fold, Hero raises to 5 bb, SB raises to 15 bb, fold, MP calls 14 bb, Hero calls 10 bb

Flop : (46 bb, 3 players) 8:hearts: 3:spades: 7:diamonds:
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn : (46 bb, 3 players) J:diamonds:
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

River : (46 bb, 3 players) 4:clubs:
SB checks, MP bets 10 bb, Hero raises to 60 bb, fold, MP raises to 264.8 bb and is all-in, Hero ???

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Uh ... isn't your hand 2nd nuts? T9 beats you, but what else do I miss? –  Halvard Aug 23 '13 at 16:53
    
@Halvard You're right! Typo :) editing now. –  Toby Booth Aug 23 '13 at 21:17

2 Answers 2

I put the opponent in some hands like medium suited connector, high one gap suited connector, medium-small pair. I assume the range of the opponent is

77-22,KJs-KTs,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,QJo,JTo

Then you have to call 204 to win 370, this means that you must have at least 36% of equity. Your opponent will have

-nut straight 8.6% of times

-three of kind 11.1% of times

-two pair 2.5% of times

Against his nut range (straight + three of kind + two pair) you have 69% of equity. Against his nut straight range you have 22% of equity. Saying that, the last thing I will do if I have the 1-st nut is to scare my opponent and I would induce an all-in from my opponent. So this strong raise may means uncertainty about his hand. I think is a simple call.

Update: I take a look at what is saying game theory (exposed in the mathematics of poker). From the game theory point of view you have to call with the top 1/(1+a) % of hands that beat a bluff in order to make his value-bet/bluff EV=0, where 'a' is the ratio of bet/pot. In this case a=2.44 because his bet=264 and pot=106. This means that you have to call with top 29% that beat a bluff of your opponent. Your opponent has 88 starting hands and 25 of that are nuts. So in order to make his bet/bluff indifferent to you fold/call you have to call with the top 0.29% of 25 hands. In this case you have to call with T9s, 65s.

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So you believe villain is sometimes shoving 2.5 buyins with as little as Third Pair-No kicker?! Or even 22?! I'm forced to call 204.80bb to win 370.80bb (1.81:1) thus I need a 36% chance of winning to breakeven. If he shoves 2 pair even slightly less, it's much closer to -EV. I really don't think it's simple, at all. [edited incorrect percentage, 2013.08.24] –  Toby Booth Aug 23 '13 at 15:04
    
Allin is often a sign of weakness. –  emanuele Aug 23 '13 at 21:54
    
Calling 204.80bb to win 370.80bb is 41,64% of equity. –  emanuele Aug 23 '13 at 21:56
    
First, equity is probably the wrong term as it's the river. I'm either winning or losing, no in between. Thus it comes down to number of winning combos vs losing combos. Also, how are you getting that number?! 41.64%? Edit the answer if the calc is too long for a comment :) –  Toby Booth Aug 24 '13 at 10:19
1  
Well I found the problem, when I selects the combos, equilab include more hands (T8, 89 as straigth) I think it's a bug. I will send a report to the team of pokerstrategy. I have fixed the answer. –  emanuele Aug 24 '13 at 23:33

You have the 2nd nuts. His raise isn't a significant overbet. The straight is well-disguised. He didn't bet the turn, which takes T9 out of his range a huge percentage of the time. Easy call.

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What would you define as a "significant" overbet? –  Toby Booth Aug 25 '13 at 12:30
    
If the opponent bets 100x the size of the pot, I'm not calling without the nuts. As he bets less and less, I can call with more hands. I think that about covers it... –  smithandteam Aug 31 '13 at 22:09
    
I can't ever imagine folding here. Especially not at $1 where people do all sorts of terrible things. –  tom Dec 19 '13 at 19:43

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