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Opponent is a standard TAG regular, nothing unusual. No specific reads. 22/16/2.5 (VPIP/PFR/AF) over ~300 hands.

$4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

SB: $155
BB: $361
UTG: $190
MP: $444
Hero (CO): $415
BTN: $446

Pre Flop: Hero on CO has A♠ 5♠
2 folds, Hero raises to $16, BTN calls $16, 2 folds

Flop: ($38, 2 players) A⋄ T♣ 2♥
Hero bets $29, BTN calls $29

Turn: ($96, 2 players) 6⋄
Hero bets $70, BTN calls $70

River: ($236) Q♥
Hero?

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@Michael Did you edit the "NL400" tag? If so, putting the NL before the stake is the most common, and accepted notation. That's the only change I can see. I'd say that it's best to keep to the most recognized vernacular. –  Toby Booth Jan 15 '12 at 21:37
    
I didn't touch the 400NL tag...you originally put it that way and now you just changed it. I merely added the online tag because it was obvious from your reference to player stats. –  Michael McGowan Jan 15 '12 at 21:39
    
Note that you can look at the revision history by clicking the link describing how long ago an edit was made. –  Michael McGowan Jan 15 '12 at 21:40
    
Ahh, an oversight on my part then. Thanks for the tip about the history. I didn't know that. Any suggestions about the hand? :) –  Toby Booth Jan 15 '12 at 21:41
1  
you need a hand sample for the stats otherwise the stats, especially AF, are at best meaningless and at worst are misleading. –  shuttle87 Jan 16 '12 at 4:10

4 Answers 4

up vote 2 down vote accepted

If we bet here, we are doing it as a bluff. Worse hands will fold. With that in mind, what better hands can we fold out with a bet? Perhaps some Ax, but not necessarily. Therefore, we should check.

Now, how about if he bets? Since we have no reads, I will assume he is playing straight-forward and will never double float us. What hands will bluff? There are no missed draws in his range, and worse hands that have gotten this far will be seeking a show-down. Therefore, we can conclude that he is only betting with better on the river.

In short, I would check/fold this river.

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With no draws on the board except gutshots, you're probably not going to be ahead here. He will likely call the river since he called the turn (if he had you beat), so betting is probably not a great move. I would check and fold to a reasonable bet.

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With only a few bluffs and many, many value combinations in villains range, check-folding is usually the best choice.

Given that there aren't any trips or flushes available, nor many draws prior to the river, the opponents range is heavily weighted towards value hands. AJ, slowplayed sets like 22, TT, or a semi-float with 66 that came good at the turn are possible. That's very dependant on gameflow, and our image. If we bet here and get raised we are almost certainly beat assuming our actions haven't been too aggressive or bluff heavy.

K⋄Q⋄ and K⋄J⋄ are possible but unlikely. K⋄Q⋄ wants to showdown and we lose to the K⋄J⋄ straight anyway. Q⋄J⋄ and Tx want to showdown more than they want to bluff.

If we do happen to have 2-Pair or better at this point, if your opponent is capable turning weak made hands into bluffs (e.g. He has pairs) or gutshots/turned flush draws that missed, sometimes check-raising is a good option to create even greater +EV situations in the future, and deter your opponent from bluffing at too many rivers.

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Wait, why did you answer your own question? –  John Dibling Feb 2 '12 at 23:15
    
@John Why shouldn't he? –  Chris Marasti-Georg Feb 3 '12 at 15:17
    
@ChrisMarasti-Georg: If Toby posted this question with the intent to answer it himself, and there are no special circumstances (such as establishing a FAQ such as the one constructed for the C++ FAQ in SO), then it is akin to using this site as a blog, and is not appropriate for the SE platform. SE is not a blog. I don't know if that was Toby's intent -- that's why I asked. –  John Dibling Feb 3 '12 at 18:57
2  

Checkfolding here is amazingly bad, why do you even bet the turn if you are going to fold to a river that changed nothing?

Put in a blocking bet.

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I bet the turn for value because I believe I still have enough equity to make it +EV. As for the river, it does change a few things which I noted in my answer. I actually think c/f is best now that his range is more defined than at the turn. –  Toby Booth Feb 3 '12 at 11:40

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