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Villain is a TAGgy regular. 24/17/2.1 (VPIP/PFR/AF) over ~270 hands.

$2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

SB: $161
BB: $218
UTG: $63
MP: $157
Hero (CO): $290
BTN: $245

Pre Flop: Hero on CO has 7⋄ 6⋄
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, BB calls $8

Flop: ($17, 2 players) K⋄ T♣ 6♥
BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB calls $15

Turn: ($47, 2 players) K⋄ T♣ 6♥ 3♠
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($47) K⋄ T♣ 6♥ 3♠ J♣
BB checks, Hero?

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2 Answers 2

up vote 5 down vote accepted

Bluffing the river after checking back turn here is not a good idea. The only hand you are representing when betting the flop, checking back the turn here is like AQ or JJ. You will get too many curious calls to be able to successfully bet the river here. If you want him to fold low pairs etc., you will need to barrel the turn and possibly the river as well.

When villain calls this flop his range consists of hands like QJ,JT,T9,KJ,KQ and alot of other low-medium pairs. I would not put him on a particularily strong range since I think an aggressive player like that will most likely 3b these hands preflop.

I would prefer you to check back the flop here to keep the pot small and try to get the cheapest showdown as possible.

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Agreed. The 6's could be good but you almost have to fold to a reraise so a bet on the river is more likely to cost you money on anything short of an all in. And this is not a hand to go all in on. –  Chad Jan 20 '12 at 20:54
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You can only succesfully bluff, when you know BB will never have K and almost always have a T and you are known of value betting light with something like AJ. Actually I like the bet more, as you represent AQ, JJ, KQ, KJ, TJ maybe even AK and he almost never has KQ and KJ because he would bet the river with those hands. Also unlikely that he has a huge hand like a set (AQ probably never, as against CO range it's good to 3-bet and he is a taggy opponent so knows that) and want to check-raise it on the river. I dont agree with @Duffman1985 that villains range contains JT, and KJ, because he should probably bet that against our mid hands like Kx, and QJ, AJ, because we are most likely to check those hands rather. The only very strong hand he can have is TT and 66 and this line is not standard at all with those. He can fold a lot of T like T9s, TQs, AT, these are the most probably hands he just cold calls with preflop. Maybe you can even represent QQ too. and as there were not very much draw at the flop, not even the turn ! it's more likely that you have a value hand that became real value hand at the river. So I dont think it's very profitable him to call with Tx and even with Jx. When you have a good table image, this even goes toward the bluff I think.

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however at the first glance, check came to my mind either, but analyzing the situation deeper, bluff is the right play ! –  Walkman Jan 16 '12 at 15:09
    
Try bluffing and you will be called 90% of the times. Bluffing is not the right play. You won't fold out enough of his range to make it a profitable play. You are never representing a hand like AK when checking the turn, not even KQ,KJ. The hands you are repping is such a narrow part of your value-range! They will call you down sooo many times when you bet this river. It just looks way too bluffy. If you wanna bluff, barrel the turn! –  Duffman1985 Jan 16 '12 at 16:09
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