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mathematically speaking of you make the right bet (call) everytime the outs and pot odds are in your favour and fold when they're not, shouldn't you have about 95% chance of making profit in the long run (over thousands of hands) factoring in poker tells etc and only going 'all in' when you have a high four of a kind or straight flush?

And should you carry on betting even if it's mathematically illogical based on psychological factors such as tells and non verbal tells?

Most of my other questions get down voted or put on hold for being vague or silly but this is a genuine question and I hope I haven't done anything wrong, thanks in advance!

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You're right, you will get a profit over time. What you described here is: making decisions that are +EV (estimated value). Look it up ;) –  Radu Murzea Jun 15 at 14:34
but wouldn't that mean that mathematically you'd fold every time they went well in or at least over 60% of your chips. –  lucid-S Jun 15 at 16:18
I get lost at 'everyone the outs' when trying to read your question. Can you edit it? –  WW. Jun 15 at 21:57
sure, seems I was supposed to write 'every time' hope that helps –  lucid-S Jun 16 at 5:51
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1 Answer 1

This is overly simplistic. Let me divide my answer into two parts:

Pot odds

While figuring out the odds the pot lays you on the river is one thing, estimating implicit pot odds on earlier streets if much harder to do. So the odds are "right" on the flop. But what when you miss your card on the turn? Will your opponent charge you dearly to see the river, or are they prone to back down after getting called once?

When you make your hand

So you made your straight. This is not by any chance an automatic win. Sometimes you lose after making your hand. And chances are, it will cost you quite a bit, now that you're happy with your holding. How do you gauge these parameters?

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Well now do you do those things then? –  lucid-S Jun 15 at 15:54
I'm not sure I understand. –  Christofer Olsson Jun 15 at 15:56
you told me that estimating implicit odds on earlier streets is hard so can you explain how you'd do this –  lucid-S Jun 15 at 17:57
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