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Hero is under the gun with about 7000 in chips, just doubled up. 6 handed, blinds are 200/400 and 25 antes. Hero has 99. Hero raises to 1200. Chip leader, about 15000 in #2 raises to 3000. Hand is folded around to hero.

Call, shove or fold?

Not much known about villain. Seems solid and conservative.

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1  
If we bust out now, will we cash? What is the payout structure? If we won't cash now, are we close to the bubble? –  Chris Marasti-Georg Feb 8 '12 at 14:08
    
That's a great question that I would like to know as well. –  CheckRaise Feb 8 '12 at 20:09
    
Way out of the money. Looking to get enough chips to actually maneuver in a few pots. –  IslandCow Feb 8 '12 at 20:46

3 Answers 3

up vote 6 down vote accepted

I can't see calling here for an additional 1800 to get to 3000 with then only about 4000 left.

So to me it leaves shoving all-in or folding.

If you shove, I think you have near zero fold equity after the PF3B to 3000 done by the solid/conservative player you describe at UTG+1. He already did put 3000 in and he'd have only 4000 to add to call in a pot that would have, before his call, 10750 (your 7 000 + 6*25 of ante + 600 of blinds + his 3 000)... So he would have quite good calling odds if you were to PF4B shove all-in.

So if you shove, you have to seriously expect a call. Which leaves you to putting him on a PF3B range, to see if your 99 could be a favorite vs his range.

Versus a range of nearly 5%, which would be 77+,AK (all pocket pairs of 77 or more and all AK hands), you are only 41% favorite.

To reach 50/50 he would need to have a range of 7% (say 55+,AK,AQ).

So to me you don't have enough fold equity and if you want to "flip", I'm really not sure it's going to end up being a flip, because a solid/conservative player 3-betting you preflop from UTG+1 (4 players are still going to speak after him) must have a narrow range.

So, as "amigal" answered in the other answer, I think fold is a good idea : )

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I shoved. Villain flipped over JJ and they held up. I will definitely keep this in mind for next time though, I had more overs in his range and I was hoping to double up. –  IslandCow Feb 8 '12 at 20:52

I think fold is a good idea.

You play against a solid, conservative player - you must assume you are facing at least two over cards. You don't want to race the big guy with ~50% chance of winning.

Amigal

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Calling the raise will leave you with around 5200 left to play for the rest of the hand. It's a safe assumption that calling here will leave you pot committed and you will have to put the rest of your chips in at some time, either with a shove on the flop or in chunks down to the river. Also, it's also a safe to assume that 4 betting all-in will not get villain to fold pre flop. If you knew the villain's propensity to fold on the flop, you could try your luck with the Stop and Go play where you call his 3bet with the intention to ship it in on the flop.

But like others have said, you are most likely a dog to villains 3 bet range at this point.

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Stop and Go might have been a good tactic. I'll keep that in mind next time. –  IslandCow Feb 8 '12 at 20:53

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