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1/3 at Rivers Casino, Pittsburgh Pa. Villain is a Hines Ward lookalike - he started out playing as a seemingly competent LAG, playing lots of hands fairly aggressively, putting opponents in tough spots. Turns out he's just a maniac. Has bought in for the 4th time, buying in full each time. Preflop raises have increased from teens, to 20s, to 40s. Folds maybe 1/4 of hands pre, raises everything else. Has been getting paid when he has the goods, and giving it all back with misplaced aggression. Table in general has seemed frustrated by villain. Hero 3-bet once before villain arrived and got a fold - other than that, there hasn't been any 3-betting preflop.

Hero's recent hands: Hero has ~180. Villain is BB, UTG stradles to 6. Hero sees black TT in UTG+2, limps planning to limp/rr, villain makes it 43, UTG calls, hero shoves. Villain calls, UTG folds. Villain says "You're ahead". Board runs out K95A9, hero shows 2 pair, villain mucks.

Against a different player who had shown a propensity to make what he considered big laydowns against villain, and has also been seen bluffing late streets. Hero A♠J♠ in HJ raises to 18 behind a couple of limpers, button hems, haws, and calls (he had been doing this often). 2 players in EP call. Flop comes J23 rainbow, one ♠. Hero bets 65 (misclick, meant 60), button hems, haws, and calls again, EP folds. Turn 6♠, Hero bets 100, button shoves for his remaining 70, hero calls and spikes a J against KK.

The hand in question:

Table Stacks:

Hero (BB) 600
Villain (CO) ~650
Limpers have 200-300

Preflop:

Hero dealt Q♢ Q♣
2 limpers to Villain in CO who makes it 13. Button and SB fold, Hero raises to 33, 2 folds, Villain calls.

Flop ($67):

T♣ 8♠ 3♣

Hero bets $50, villain calls without much hesitation.

Turn ($167):

4♠

Hero bets $100, villain calls fairly quickly.

I think my betsizing was a bit small here. I do well on the flop (IMO), but I think that in general, I tend to go too small on the turn. I end up leaving > a PSB on the river for both of us.

River ($367):

T♡

Final board:

T♣ 8♠ 3♣ 4♠ T♡

Effective stacks remaining are around $420. Hero checks. Villain instantly shoves all in.

Should we call?

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I agree that the turn bet is too small, for exactly the reasons you note. –  Jeffrey Blake Jan 10 '12 at 20:38
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@Chad If you are referring to the hand history format and things like QdQc, there's a meta question about that now. If you are talking about things like BB or UTG, I'm not sure it's wise to change those. Those are the accepted vernacular at least in the online community. –  Michael McGowan Jan 10 '12 at 21:10
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@MichaelMcGowan - I did not mean the hand history. I think if we get the card codes working that would probably make this more readable. I just look and see alot of initials and it made my head hurt. –  Chad Jan 10 '12 at 21:15
    
I agree, this will be much better once we have suit icons. –  Chris Marasti-Georg Jan 10 '12 at 21:17
    
@Chris Marasti-Georg: ok, but how this hand was ended;-) –  Svisstack Jan 22 '12 at 22:50
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7 Answers

I think the only realistic options for villain are a missed draw or Tx. I think he'd have gotten more aggressive earlier if he had you preflop. Your line looks a lot like an overpair to me, and as such, he would want to get value out of you if he had trips or a full house. As such, I don't think he shoves the river here if he wanted a call. He knows you are not thrilled about the river and is trying to get you to fold.

I call.

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First, a look at ranges: I think he has AA/KK/Tx/88/33 here no more often than he has JJ or a busted draw (to the straight or the flush). And sometimes he'll turn up with utter crap. So if we say it's an even money bet, we're getting good odds on a call.

Second, let's look at history: You noted in the comments that Villian has not let a pot check around. Also, he way overplayed a couple of face cards, a low pair, or worse in the TT hand. Finally, his play feels as though he is trying to act strong, which fits the classic "act strong when weak" tell.

I call.

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The hemming hawing villain was a different one, just listed to note hero's image. I'll update the question to be clearer. –  Chris Marasti-Georg Jan 10 '12 at 20:47
    
Bah! Ok, so our only experience with this villian is seeing that he has been aggro/maniac? No history one way or the other about how he has played similar situations? –  Jeffrey Blake Jan 10 '12 at 20:50
    
He hasn't been 3bet at yet, and he hasn't played a pot this deep. I don't remember seeing him let a street check around. –  Chris Marasti-Georg Jan 10 '12 at 20:51
    
His plays don't make that much sense to me, which makes me want to call him. I think AA/KK you probably see him defending his turf preflop instead of just calling. Tx doesn't seem strong enough to slow-play so I think you see him trying to wrest initiative back with a raise when he hits top pair off the flop. If he did manage to slow-play something big, I think you'd see a value bet on the river. Your bets looked like pretty standard continuation play and didn't give him any reason to believe you'd call an all-in bet. All in all, smells like the tell Jeff mentioned above. –  voraciti Jan 12 '12 at 22:54
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It feels like he is trying to make it seem like a busted flush/straight draw bluff. I am guessing he actually has a low pair 88 or 44.

The question is do you feel lucky punk? Part of me wants to call down but even bad players get lucky sometimes. With not having the nuts or even any of the top possible ill give him credit this time and let him have a relatively small pot in hopes he will try it again when i am stronger.

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I'd bet $55 on the flop, $130 on the turn.

That said, if he is as aggressive as you state, has a wide a range as you perceive and doesn't like to let a betting opportunity go by then, given the vulnerability of your hand and it's likelihood to improve, check calling three streets (providing you don't spike a set) is a reasonable line IMO.

A bare overpair isn't a hand I'd consider building a 400bb pot with, OOP, versus a LAGgy villain. I don't believe you can call profitably here. I fold.

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Ok, so first thing is first.

He is very unlikely bluffing. Why?

Well, he has been calling your bets and you have been the aggressor. It is unlikely he is playing a draw this way, unless it is a big draw, because he flatted you preflop.

Why does villain raise and flat you preflop? Any why such a small raise from him. AA and KK certainly weigh a bit higher in my book due to that move.

If I am villain holding a big hand, knowing my image, I push after you check as fast as I can to make it look at bluffy as possible.

I also don't think he's expecting you to make a big lay down after betting big the previous streets and 3 betting pre-flop.

I myself would have a hard time folding QQ here, I think I would really need a good read on the player that can't really be described in text. (Although I understand now why you gave some previous hand examples.)

I would lean towards thinking he has 88, KK or AA since all those fit the betting pattern, perhaps AT if he raises preflop but would flat a 3 bet there. (This is where you need to know if villain would ever flat a 3 bet holding KK or AA.)

Overall, I think you are beat 2/3 time, so I flip my QQ face up and fold and judge his reaction so that I can take him when I am in a better spot.

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+1 "I flip my [hand] face up and fold and judge his reaction so that I can take him when I am in a better spot." –  Tom Au Feb 3 '13 at 1:36
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so we classified someone as a maniac what do we think he has ?

IMHO his range has to be very polarized, the main question is why does he not bet ? either he has a draw or he's slowplaying (all imo of course). since the draw didn't come in i think we need to call. mainly because he would likely bet/raise with a ten in his hand. i would think that he would 4bet preflop with AA/KK.

I think he either has a draw that didn't come in, or a made full house.

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Classic Way Ahead/Way Behind scenario. –  CheckRaise Feb 7 '12 at 21:18
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I wouldn't see vilan having any real good hand whatsoever. Definitly not a big pair since he makes the raise pretty small PF(looks more like connectors to build big pot PF). He would have protected his hand PF or on the flop if he had a big hand. Or would have at least raised to build a bigger pot.

The way he played sure looks like a busted draw maybe like J9 suited

Answer: CALL

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