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Opponent is a TAG. 23/19/2.8 (VPIP/PFR/AF) over ~600 hands. He's opening ~23% from MP. I've been playing slightly tighter, around 20/15/1.7 which given our table dynamics, I believe I looked less aggressive than you'd expect from someone with these stats.

The blinds are slightly looser than us both, but importantly they are generally passive and straight-forward. Villain seems to understand who to take advantage of and who not to get out of line with. At a few showdowns he's been able to extract thin-value from opponents calling too wide so my read is he's capable of betting with a wider range of marginal and value hands in this spot.

What would you do here?

p.s. [To be clear, I'm not complaining. I just think we're capable of better answers. I like upvoting stuff, so please do your best to make it worth it!] I've made a few of these questions now, and it seems that either some people aren't bothered to put more detailed analysis into their answers or they aren't sure how to. I should say that short answers aren't that useful. Anyone can do that! I can do that!! What I'm looking for and hoping will become the standard are detailed answers that use some range analysis, possible equity analysis (if applicable). I've done the detailed analysis myself, but I'm asking it here because I'd like to get the communities input as well.

Sincerely, Thanks.


$6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

SB: $681
BB: $1401
UTG: $640
MP: $889
Hero (CO): $961
BTN: $597

Pre Flop: Hero is CO has 6♠ 5♠
1 folds, MP raises to $18, Hero calls $18, 3 folds

Flop: ($45, 2 players) Q♣ 5⋄ 3♠
MP bets $39, Hero calls $39

Turn: ($123, 2 players) 2♠
MP bets $96, Hero calls $96

River: ($315) A⋄
MP bets $248, Hero?

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I'm pretty sure this is an instant fold. MP bets a huge amount on the river, you can't commit that much money with just a pair of fives. From what you've said, his range is somewhat wider, but not by that much... –  Radu Murzea Apr 10 '12 at 10:16
    
@SoboLAN Is that not an answer?! (not a comment) ;D –  Toby Booth Apr 10 '12 at 16:22
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1 Answer 1

up vote 3 down vote accepted

Seen preflop action I kinda like the flop call because you have a little something + redraws and you can float the turn if he doesn't 2nd barrel.

However once you hit your flush draw on the turn I'm not sure I like that call: you're getting only 2.2:1 on your $96 call and I think it's unlikely you'll extract much in case you hit (not to mention the reverse implied odds if he hits a bigger flush). But YMMV and that wasn't your question anyway...

You said he PFRs 23% from that position, so if he's able to 3-barrel bluff then he must have something like: KJ KT K9s K8s JT JT J9s T9s (maybe K7s, J8s, T8s, T7s). These are basically if I'm not mistaken the only hands from a 23% range (if you include all pocket pairs in his 23% range) that you can beat.

Any other hand is beating you: Any Axs, any pocket pair (22, 33 and 44 which now makes him a straight), any KQ, QJ, QT, Q9s (maybe Q8s).

That's really not many hands of his range that didn't hit a little something: I think there's only about 25% of his 23% range that you are beating.

Moreover he shall definitely not always 3-barrel bluff.

So to me you're not winning this anywhere near often enough to win money on that river call. Even if the above computation are very approximate and if about 100 occurences from MP (out of about 600 deals, you'll have about 100 deals where he's in MP) is not enough to get his true PFR from MP, I think you're way too far behind.

To me river is a fold.

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I don't have much more to add than this as a standalone answer, but you can't beat any of his thin value range. Second, what can he put you on that would call 2 bets on this board and fold to a third barrel? IMO he is bluffing here very rarely - certainly not with enough frequency to make this a call. His value range is just way larger than his bluffing range. –  Chris Marasti-Georg Apr 11 '12 at 16:06
    
@TacticalCoder It's a good answer (+1), but you haven't considered a raise. It's interesting that most of the people I've spoken to don't even mention it! –  Toby Booth Apr 11 '12 at 17:40
    
@Toby Booth: effective stacks are $889 and he already put $401 in, so he has $488 left. If you put him allin if I did correct calcs there shall be $1259 in the pot and he would get about 3:1 on his call. If he has a little something (which I think is very often the case), it would come down to how often he thinks you're making a move here (after calling preflop, flop and turn). But anyway, to me after a passive preflop, flop and turn the river is not the time to be aggressive: you don't represent a 4, nor an A (AK would 3-bet pre or fold later on, AQ would raise, AJ would fold, etc.). –  TacticalCoder Apr 11 '12 at 22:49
    
@Toby Booth: I'm not asking for opponent's cards but what did you end up doing? –  TacticalCoder Apr 11 '12 at 22:52
    
@tacticalcoder I'll tell you soon. Watch this space ;) –  Toby Booth Apr 12 '12 at 5:28
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