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Villain is 29/21/1.6AF; 6% 3bet; Fold to 3Bet 13%(1/9); Steal from BTN 67%(10/15), 41% overall steal (16/39); over ~160 hands.

I believe he's positionally aware and aggressive. I think he's at least a competent player. He hasn't made any obviously bad plays. Not to say that he can't, just that I haven't seen any.


NL200 (Zoom)(6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Hero (BB): $982.72
UTG: $297.2
UTG+1: $200.00
CO: $400.04
BTN: $503.28
SB: $209.56

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero has A♣ 9♣

fold, fold, BTN raises to $6.00, fold, Hero calls $4.00

Flop: ($13.00, 2 players) A♠ 8♣ 9⋄
Hero checks, BTN bets $10.40, Hero raises to $36.92, BTN raises to $84.92, Hero calls $48.00

Turn: ($182.84, 2 players) T⋄
Hero checks, BTN bets $148.10, Hero???

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Now I'm super curious: why check on the flop ? –  Radu Murzea Jul 14 '12 at 9:58
    
He had a high cbet frequency. Over 80% if I remember. I checked to encourage his bet. –  Toby Booth Jul 14 '12 at 15:12
    
Aha. Well, I think I would go all-in here. There are too many numbers, I don't really know how to justify this mathematically, but it's just a feeling. I doubt it would be a bad play... –  Radu Murzea Jul 14 '12 at 15:54
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1 Answer

up vote 3 down vote accepted

I am not in touch with the state of 200NL online since Black Friday, so you may have to adjust my analysis for those games at this stack depth.

Preflop and flop are fine. A preflop 3-bet for balance/value would be okay shallower, but the depth is not great out of position and also Villain can call profitably with a wide range. On the flop, I think when the money goes in 250 BB deep you see 88 a lot. Also calling allows Villain to continue bluffing. I would probably ship the turn. The river has Villain with $264 behind and a pot of $479. While he would likely elect to represent the straight with his air, he may also check back a worse two pair, of which 98 has 2 outs on the turn. Below are some numbers to show we are probably not getting away.

The Flop

  • The value range that beats you is {AA,99-88} for 8 combinations.
  • The value range that you beat is {A9-A8,98} for 19 combinations; we assume Villain rarely bet/3-bets this deep with AK.
  • The semi-bluff range is {QJ,JT,76,65} for 64 combinations with 22% equity, weighted by the frequency Villain takes the B3B line as a rebluff; I conservatively guess 20% of players with these stats are capable of this play and half of them actually elect to, giving 6.4 combinations with 22% equity.
  • The bluff range is that same 10% times Villain's button VP$IP, 67% from your statistic, excluding the previous full-weight combinations; this gives 79 combinations with negligible equity.

You are ahead 93% of the time and are a 3:1 equity favorite against a non-air range with full weights, just over 2:1 with the above weights considered.

The Turn

  • 8 combinations still beat you; 3.2 combinations now beat you with a straight.
  • 19 combinations you still beat.
  • 1.2 JT combinations, after card removal, now have a pair plus draw for 23% equity.
  • 53 combinations of air double barrels if we assume a 2/3 frequency.
  • Some small amount of the time Villain pot controls two pair, but neglect that for simplicity.

You are ahead 87% of the time and are an equity flip against a non-air range with full weights, being a 3:2 weighted favorite.

Clearly if you haven't given up the turn you commit yourself to a showdown, so a river breakdown is unnecessary.

Edit: I forgot about T7, but the difference is minute.

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Thanks for the in depth answer. :) –  Toby Booth Jul 15 '12 at 2:27
    
I think you're giving villain too wide a value range with which he would actually call a turn shove. I doubt most villains are calling 120BB with either of A9 or A8. Never 98. Besides, if you c/c turn and river you're keeping his bluff range in the game. –  moteutsch Jul 22 '12 at 1:14
    
moteutsch, I think you're right about 98, but I now think check-calling is best even with 98 calling 100% of the time because Villain only needs to bluff with the given air range a third of the time, which would need to be very overestimated to make check-calling worse than a turn ship. That is to say, shipping is +EV, but I believe check-calling the turn planning on check-calling the river gains you 20-30BB in comparison. OP you should probably unaccept my answer, as I wouldn't want a flawed analysis checkmarked :). –  Loc Nguyen Oct 8 '12 at 7:28
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