# Tricky Tournament Bubble Situation

How (and why) do you play this hand as big stack on the bubble of a short-handed SNG? All players are reasonably skilled. BB has played pretty tight in the previous ~100 hands this tournament, and in several past tournaments, and is probably not quite aggressive enough with a shortish stack, but he's solid with a big stack. Payout is: \$700 for first; \$300 for second; \$0 for third.

Blinds: 50/100
SB: 2,920 (29.2 bb)
BB: 1,925 (19.3 bb)
BTN: 5,155 (51.6 bb) with 3⋄ 4♠

Preflop: (150)
BTN raises to 287, SB folds, BB calls 187

Flop: (624) 5♣ 2♣ Q⋄ (2 players)

BB checks, BTN bets 468, BB raises to 1,147, BTN?

-
Are those stacks after or prior to posting? – Loc Nguyen Jul 17 '12 at 17:18
Nevermind, just noticed the total is 10k :). – Loc Nguyen Jul 17 '12 at 17:20

Villain's range is weighted toward Qx given his lack of interest in maximizing fold equity, so you're something like 32% to win and being given 2730:1170 = 30%, slightly correct pot odds to call chip-equity wise.

If you fold, your money equity via ICM is \$411.

If you commit, 32% of the time your stack will be 7,130 against 2,870, for a money equity of \$585, and 68% of the time your stack will be 3,230 against 3,900 and 2,870, for a money equity of \$327.

Your money equity expectation for going with the hand is thus 32% * \$585 + 68% * \$327 = \$410. This is about the same money equity as folding, if our range assumption is accurate.

You really screwed yourself with the bet sizing. If Villain can have a flush draw this is a fold since those composed with Qx tip the money equity enough, and even if he doesn't have a flush draw his queen is a club a third of the time for a redraw on two of your outs.

-
It sounds like you're very slightly in favor of a fold, but consider it a very fine line. I'm slightly in favor of getting it in, but also consider it a very fine line. Either way, I agree that my student screwed up on bet-sizing here. Full pot as a c-bet commits his stack sufficiently to make this an easy call. I assume that's your thought here as well? – Jeffrey Blake Jul 17 '12 at 19:47
Yeah, any bigger of a bet and we can't fold here. – Loc Nguyen Jul 17 '12 at 20:15

I realize its the bubble and I think opening the BTN really wide here is fine, but I'm pretty sure this is a fold preflop. As for the flop it's really close but a fold since he might even do this with 5x or mid pairs if he decides not to shove them preflop.

-