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Villain is 53/11/3.6 Post-Flop AF; 3% PF3b; over ~60 hands.

I saw villain call a few one-barrel cbets with bottom pair/underpairs at wet flops and make it to showdown passively.


Also, I saw this which I felt was relevant...

NL100 (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

SB: $251.08
BB: $291.28
Hero (UTG): $133.24
CO: $261.12
BTN: $72.88 - Villain

Pre Flop: Hero has Q♥J♠

Hero raises to $3.00, fold, BTN calls $3.00, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($12.00, 4 players) A⋄ 5♠ 7⋄
SB checks, BB bets $4.56, fold, BTN raises to $9.12, fold, BB calls $4.56

Turn: ($30.24, 2 players) 9♣
BB checks, BTN bets $7.26, BB calls $7.26

River: ($44.76, 2 players) 9⋄
BB checks, BTN bets $6.27, BB calls $6.27

BB showed [A♠J⋄]
BTN showed [A♣J♣]

--Split pot--

Any bet or raise he made was small in comparison to pot size, pre or post flop for other hands also.


Then the hand in question...

NL100 (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: $263.92
SB: $258.56
Hero (BB): $148.60
UTG: $80.04
MP: $250.92
CO: $98.24

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00,

Pre Flop: Hero has Q♣Q⋄

fold, fold, CO calls $1.00, fold, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $6.00, CO calls $5.00, SB calls $5.00

Flop: ($18.00, 3 players) 9⋄7♠8♥
SB checks, Hero bets $14.00, CO raises to $28.00, SB folds, Hero???

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1 Answer

up vote 4 down vote accepted

Given the history you have with Villain, I think that we are pretty likely to be ahead here, as it sounds like he is doing this with a wide range. I suspect that with only 60 hands, we have no knowledge of how he plays his big hands (so we have nothing to judge whether or not he would take the same line with Top-Pair-Good-Kicker as with a straight), but since we know he will do this with as low as TPGK, I do not think folding is an option here. So we are left deciding whether to call or raise.

A fair number of his TPGK hands have extra outs to the straight - a situation which we're still 60/40 ahead of, but which would lead him to commit to the hand. I have to suspect that our fold equity here is minimal as well.

Overall the range I'm giving him is something like JJ-77,ATs-A9s,KTs-K9s,QTs-Q9s,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,ATo,KTo,QTo,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o, and perhaps a few weaker hands. We are right around even money against this range, and none of the hands that have us in trouble go away as a result of a raise. To me, that means there is little upside to playing a big pot here. The only thing that can happen on the turn to dramatically hurt our hand against his range is for a J or T to come. While we take a big hit in terms of equity if that happens, his small bets will likely make it still +EV to call, if we let that happen.

So with all of that in mind, I call here, intending to play it passively for a cheap show down. I think we'll have better spots than this to get this guy's stack.

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