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Villain is 37/15/9 (3b) over ~450 hands. RFI 32%(7/22) from SB. This is the first time he's limp-called from this spot, altough he does it slightly more than half the time from most other positions. Average post-flop aggression. Pretty standard what you'd expect from a loose-passive fishy player type.

How do you see villains range at this river, and more importantly, how did you get to that conclusion? Thanks.


$1.00 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

Hero (BB): $228.10
UTG: $234.74
CO: $65.28
BTN: $61.22
SB: $436.96

SB posts SB $0.50, Hero posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $1.5) Hero has Q♣J♥

fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $5.00, SB calls $4.00

Flop: ($10.00, 2 players) 8⋄9♠T♥
SB checks, Hero bets $6.00, SB calls $6.00

Turn: ($22.00, 2 players) 5⋄
SB checks, Hero bets $13.00, SB calls $13.00

River: ($48.00, 2 players) 9♣
SB checks, Hero bets $34.00, SB raises to $116.00, Hero ???

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IMO his range is something like [A-8,9,10], [K-9,10], [Q-9,10,J], [J-9,10] –  Digital Fire Oct 8 '12 at 21:09
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4 Answers 4

My first instinct would be to snap call it, but on second thought he might have just filled up here with 89, 9T or 95. I would consider 88, 99 or TT less likely as I would suspect even a bad player to raise those out of position to open the pot.

I would expect A9, K9, Q9 to open too in a blind battle. Certainly A9. Limping and calling, he'd most likely would have done that with just the hands that beat you.

On the other hand, I would also expect most players to raise two pair or a set on the flop. But since he's loose-passive, those guys just call you down. When they show agrression they usually have it.

I suspect this guy would, even if passive, to open here with most of the range that you beat (A9, K9, Q9...) and 88, 99, TT and just limp / call with the range that is now beating you.

Chalk it up to bad luck and fold.

How did it turn out?

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He has Trip 9s or Straight. I doubt that he had 2 pairs on the flop. I'd expect the villain to reraise the flop with 2 pairs (with a set too btw), but he didn't.

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I'd put him on T9, 98, A9, K9, Q9. Its a blind battle and hes going to be calling down light and trapping. J9/Q9,97 should prolly be weighted pretty low since he might be a little more fearful of the straight/higher 9s. TT,99,88 essentially never gets here.

16 combos you win...

A9-8
K9-4
Q9-2
J9-1
97-1

12 combos you lose...

T9-6
98-6

You should win 60% of the time. You would still have pot odds to call if he had only T9,98,A9

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The guy just filled up, so this is a fold IMO. His range to do this on the river seems to be pure value or overvaluing a 9 putting you on a over pair. But i aspect a check-call with most 9s such as J9 or a raise somewhere in the hand as he would be open-ended. The way this played and without more information I fold, as I expect to see 89 and 9T.

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+1. You expect too see 89 and T9. I'd add 88s and TTs here. With such a solid re-raise over such aggression - I agree, this is a fold for sure. –  Nemoden Nov 8 '12 at 7:16
    
+1 What is he calling you with on the flop and turn? Not with a T high hand after you double barrel a flop like that and with no flush draw out there... definitively fold. I'm thinking 9T, TT, 99 or 88 –  Jorge Córdoba Mar 1 '13 at 1:19
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