In probability theory, the expected value (or EV or expectation) of a random variable is the weighted average of all possible values that this random variable can take on.

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Is this normal? Below EV

Is it normal if I'm running 11.500 big blinds below EV in all-in pots over 700.000 hands? What are the chances for this to occur? My standard deviation BB/100 is about 100.
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119 views

Looking for mathematical paradoxes in Poker

I have been working on mathematical paradox, here is my blog. I am looking for paradoxical situations in Poker for a deep study. I found things, like Morton's Theorem, Implicit Collusion or "all in" ...
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2answers
131 views

Ideal bet size based on EV

I'm trying to determine what the ideal bet size is on strong hands. I do understand the concept of EV. So I can calculate what the maximum bet size is with a positive EV. However, that would be too ...
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1answer
231 views

HU EV facing an open shove from sb with ~10bb

This is my first post, I'm looking to find out what the EV of calling this shove is. I've been reading Will Tipton's Expert HUNL book and I'm not really sure what to do when calculating the EV of ...
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2answers
2k views

The need of calculating EV?

I need to clear something myself on EV topic. I know that EV calculation is: EV = (Percentage of hit * Pot size) + -(Percentage of not hit * Call size) I might be wrong but isn't the following a ...
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9answers
2k views

Simplest Way to Explain EV to Beginners

I've recently been teaching a few of my friends to play poker, and I've explained various facets of poker play to them, now I want to explain Expected Value. It's not a simple concept and I don't ...
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2answers
511 views

What mnemonic rules are helpful in poker calculations?

Given that precise EV calculations require one to operate with rather uncomfortable numbers, approximations are used along with simplified models. For instance, the rule of 4 and 2 allows you to ...
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1answer
473 views

How to calculate expected value if I go All-in before flop with AK offsuit

1/2$ 6max NLHE game. I am UTG and I raised by 6$ with AKo. Everybody folded except BB who raised by 11$. Pot is now 20$. Now, if I go All-in my opponet will fold everthing except AA and KK in which ...
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3answers
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How do I Calculate Expected Value of Shoving, including Fold Equity, in heads up play?

How do I calculate my expected value of shoving, including Fold Equity, in heads up play? I know several factors are involved Pot Size My Stack His Stack My chance of winning if he calls His ...
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3answers
422 views

Expected Value for SB und BB in NL HU (GTO)

Lets consider a NL HU Match 100BB deep (no rake). Both players are playing GTO (game theoretical optimum). Lets assume in the GTO Strategy the SB open limps or open raises r times and open folds f ...
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635 views

How big an edge can you have on a tournament field ? ROI vs edge question

The situation: You are playing a deep stack tournament with 300BB starting stack. Let's suppose you have exactly 300% ROI in this field, in this specific tournament. UTG goes all-in on the first hand, ...