Computational mathematics for understanding odds and other playing percentages

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3
votes
1answer
106 views

Missing the flop with AK

What are the chances of missing the flop 22 straight hands with AK? I mean when you don't flop at least one pair, two pair, straight, or a flush. I've read the chances of flopping a pair or better is ...
3
votes
2answers
192 views

How precise is math in the heat of battle?

In the heat of a hand I have never really thought in the kind of precision that is used in this post to answer a question about playing on the bubble. Indeed I have seen other players doing so in ...
5
votes
2answers
95 views

Probability of x pocket pairs at a table of n people (NLHE)?

With n people at a table, what is the probability that x of them are dealt pocket pairs? There are several easy ways to approximate this but I was wondering there was an elegant solution. Any takers?
4
votes
1answer
73 views

Calculating the Probability of Reaching a Certain Amount of BB vs Hero

I'm looking for help to build a statistic in excel or just mathematically. What I want to figure is the chance of another player (villain) increase his stack with X BBs when I estimate his BB/100 to ...
2
votes
1answer
110 views

What's the chance of a better hand behind me?

in a very casual round of poker, I'm trying to teach the others a few fundamentals about poker. I often try to back things up with some numbers, but some are too hard for me to get. On the issue of ...
5
votes
2answers
147 views

TAG vs LAG stats in HU

What are the typical stats for VPIP, PFR, 3bet etc. of a good TAG and a LAG in NL high-stakes heads up poker?
1
vote
3answers
136 views

Is stats or technical knowledge of poker of any help

I find it quite annoying that I am not able to surpass my 50m mark(on zynga poker )with a much better knowledge of poker since I had earlier crossed it...it is basically the perception of the other ...
3
votes
2answers
229 views

Hold'em hand history with hero

I'm looking for a significant number of hold'em hands with hero as I'm doing some specific statistical analyses and having hole cards only when they are shown at showdown creates some significant bias ...
3
votes
2answers
140 views

Chances of 5 way chop (flush board)

What is the exact probability that 5 players at a table will be dealt no clubs (or hearts or whatever) ? Happened to me when all 5 community were all clubs (2,3,5,K,9), thereby a 5 way chop.
6
votes
3answers
719 views

Finding leaks in your game

Having a sufficient number of hands recorder in your HUD, how am I supposed to find leaks in my game? What are the questions I have to answer in order to check my game? Which are the values of ...
2
votes
2answers
86 views

Quantifying the amount of skill required to win a tournament

I was thinking about this topic: Quantifying the amount of luck required to win a tournament And I wondered if there is a way to quantify the relation between skill and final place. It's seems hard ...
5
votes
2answers
1k views

Quantifying the amount of luck required to win a tournament

If we disregard deals, players accidentally mucking winning hands, and time-limited tournaments, in order to win a poker tournament, you must win the very last hand of the tournament. In order to win ...
7
votes
7answers
970 views

Do two or more players colluding against honest players gain on average more money, or not?

Lets say we have two or more players that collude together playing online poker against honest players. They have an obvious advantage of knowing about more cards that are in the play than they ...
6
votes
1answer
646 views

What is top N% of hands in PokerStove?

In PokerStove FAQ; The slider interface for setting the top N% of hands orders the hands according to their preflop all-in equity versus three random hands. This rather arbitrary selection was ...
9
votes
4answers
2k views

Publicly available poker stats

Are there any sources of poker hands, including how they play out with betting etc... I am imagining the log files of some poker site somewhere. I am looking for complete hand histories - and ...
5
votes
3answers
746 views

Texas Hold'em: Heads up pre-flop probabilities

Has anyone calculated the probabilities of winning/losing heads up matchups of all combinations of two players preflop hands in Texas Hold'em, and if so, can they provide a reference? I could write ...
6
votes
1answer
257 views

Online play analysis software

What software would you recommend for analyzing one's game? I'm talking detailed number-crunching after the session, not online databases like sharkscope or in-game odds calculators (meh). Is there ...
5
votes
2answers
324 views

Minimum number of hands required to establish a conclusion about win-rate?

What is minimum number of hands required to establish a conclusion about win-rate at particular level (10NLHE, 30NLHE, etc)? e.g. You can play 1000 hands and have a win-rate of 53bb/100 but that is ...
4
votes
4answers
130 views

How to learn a new poker game ?

I wanted to know what are the steps you take in order to learn a new game. I am not talking about the basic rules; more on the strategies and statistics of the game. I always start playing the "play ...
7
votes
3answers
1k views

Optimal Win Rate Standard Deviation

I've been tracking my live sessions for some time now. After 35 sessions (about four hours a session) my win rate is 34.42 an hour. My win rate standard deviation is 157.67. This seems high to me. ...
1
vote
4answers
1k views

Over the long term, how often will AA lose a hand? [closed]

On average, how often would a pair of aces win a hand? I dealt at a fairly large hold-em tournament last weekend, and 4 of 5 times AA was shown the hand lost. The one time it won it was because a ...
6
votes
2answers
440 views

How does a wild card (53rd) affect the odds of making the standard poker hands?

By standard poker hands I mean: high card one pair two pair three of a kind straight flush full house four of a kind straight flush EDIT: five of a kind I'm curious if the ranking of hands should ...