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Villain's range is weighted toward Qx given his lack of interest in maximizing fold equity, so you're something like 32% to win and being given 2730:1170 = 30%, slightly correct pot odds to call chip-equity wise. If you fold, your money equity via ICM is $411. If you commit, 32% of the time your stack will be 7,130 against 2,870, for a money equity of ...

I agree about your bubble math for sattelite and R/A tournaments. The general idea is that if you are on regular MTT bubble, in the money already, or even on the final table (doesn't metter) - you should tend to get the highest place. And take appropriate risk. I mean the distribution of prize places you get should be in favor of the first and last ...