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6

When he donkbets the flop his range likely consists of strong draws, pair+FD, pair+gutter, and some strong made hands like AT+. Reads on CO and BTN are important - if either of them is a fish he could have a wider value range. If CO and BTN are regs I expect his range to be pretty damn strong. Either way, I think flatting flop is best since we don't really ...


5

The guy just filled up, so this is a fold IMO. His range to do this on the river seems to be pure value or overvaluing a 9 putting you on a over pair. But i aspect a check-call with most 9s such as J9 or a raise somewhere in the hand as he would be open-ended. The way this played and without more information I fold, as I expect to see 89 and 9T.


5

To answer your question directly, I bet the river. Hero was lucky to avoid a third heart and see two seemingly worthless turn and river cards. If you're willing to call the flop and the turn, why not bet the river? However, I think the mistake here is not raising the SB on the flop. Hero flops bottom two-pair on a potentially volatile board and doesn't ...


4

I had exactly the same situation recently on one of Poker Maximus events. Just because the guy who was betting on me - was very tight and cautious - I decided to check the river. Questionable decision, but pot was pretty big in my case and reraise would have meant all in. He was holding A5 of hearts. On the other side: if he didn't have a flash draw - he ...


4

Given the history you have with Villain, I think that we are pretty likely to be ahead here, as it sounds like he is doing this with a wide range. I suspect that with only 60 hands, we have no knowledge of how he plays his big hands (so we have nothing to judge whether or not he would take the same line with Top-Pair-Good-Kicker as with a straight), but ...


3

MY GUT: I can't say I'm a fan of a hero-call here, which is what it feels like. THE NUMBERS: However, PokerStove disagrees. A range for villain of: { TT+, 77, 33-22, AKs, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AKo, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } (which is basically sets, better K's, AA, sticky QQ or JJ, 2nd pair, and busted draws) gives hero 56% equity which is way above what's ...


3

Valuebet here is out of question for me - a lot of hands you beat here. I'd put SB on something like AK, AJ, 99, JJ, Axs all drawing hands like 89s, TJ, TK, T9... Gutshot-straight-flush-draws like J8 or K9. Check is surrender here for most of the times. Make your opponent pay! I'd make it something like $16.50-$21.00 (21 is too much, I think, but he could ...


2

93 hands is certainly a small sample, especially for 3betting statistics. At most he's probably had ~10 opportunities to 3bet. For VPIP/PFR its reasonable, but as you probably know its very easy to go 50+ hands without being able to open/flat/3bet/whatever. The fact that villain is sitting with 40bbs is a pretty big indicator that he's a fish (or, at the ...


2

My first instinct would be to snap call it, but on second thought he might have just filled up here with 89, 9T or 95. I would consider 88, 99 or TT less likely as I would suspect even a bad player to raise those out of position to open the pot. I would expect A9, K9, Q9 to open too in a blind battle. Certainly A9. Limping and calling, he'd most likely ...


2

I'd put him on T9, 98, A9, K9, Q9. Its a blind battle and hes going to be calling down light and trapping. J9/Q9,97 should prolly be weighted pretty low since he might be a little more fearful of the straight/higher 9s. TT,99,88 essentially never gets here. 16 combos you win... A9-8 K9-4 Q9-2 J9-1 97-1 12 combos you lose... T9-6 98-6 You should win ...


2

I would probably bet an amount identical to his last bet. He doesn't have much and wont call a huge bet but this kind of bet will get called a lot by weak aces and other hands he is likely to have. Depends on stakes though, at higher stakes you might have to check it back or put in a large value bet, so it doesn't look like you can be raised off of your ...


2

Pre-flop I don't think he'll re-raise the UTG opener (+ a caller) here that often with a mediocre / bad hand in this spot that often as a squeeze play. If he's aware of position, he'll more likely re-raise a MP or late opener. An UTG raise usually represents genuine strength. After his 3-bet there's ~20BB in the pot. Calling would increase it to ~30BB and ...


2

4-bet would be good if you were 100BB deep. But 170BB effective? You'd have to fold to a 5-bet, which is gross. As played, your perceived range hits that board way harder than villain. You have mid PPs and suited connectors so often that villain is going to fold plenty better hands than yours; and you could safely fold to any reraises -- he's very rarely ...


1

I had planned to just write a short comment on splungebob's answer, but it became too long, so I leave it as an answer instead: What could villain reraise with in this situation that he could hope to win with if called? I disagree with slungebob and certainly do not think that the villain would think QQ or JJ would win if called. That would be very, very ...


1

Given what you say, you should have decided what to do on the flop, not on the river. You say you've already seen him make that move and it's a profitable move in such a dry board, he can only be afraid of TT, KA and AA and maybe KT. Since his line looks so strong (and if you know he tends to do this kind of moves in position in 3bet pots) you're going to ...


1

By leading out on every street you have no information about what he could have there. What i would do in that situation is check out he's 3 bet calls PF. If you have no information the best way is to pot control 10BB PF raise from a 2BB raise is way too much. 5BB or 6 BB is enough. On flop the pot would be 13.5BB with(6BB PFR) you raise 5 as PF agressor ...


1

You didn't specify our stack size, and that's important. I'll assume we cover everyone. I like your play on all streets. On the river, we need to choose between calling and raising. If BB was tight, I'd be fine with just calling, but your description seems to indicate that BB is loose and perhaps stationy, so I like raising. The problem with raising is ...


1

Too much inactivity on the flop and the turn, which means it's likely that everyone has a marginal hand at best. I would put a $8 - $10 bet on the turn to test the waters. If someone calls and we go to the river, then you can easily bet it and extract more value from your full house (pot is bigger, which means your bet can be bigger). Instead, if you get ...


1

I don't think there's anything wrong with betting there as I think he has a worst hand than you do, although I'm not completely sure about the over bet on the river, I don't see the point as you're only going to get called or raised with better hands and a 3/4 pot bet would achieve the same effect with less risk. If I was the villain I would be putting you ...


1

Honestly, after that check/raise on the flop, just for image conservation i would bet about 40~60 BB on the Turn , it might have the same effect you want but with less cost. If you dont like that option, then check/fold on river depending on the bet of villain A pair of thoughts: I might check/raised about 50bb on flop, enought for getting the right ...


1

Consider raising the turn and folding to a shove. If he has a worse two pair he is calling the raise, if he has a flush, he is probably shoving. So you get away cheap and maximize your value. As played, easy value bet and fold to shove. Edit: Sorry I didn't realize the K made a one card straight. No problem checking back the river in that case, I'd still ...


1

You can definitely narrow the range down to drawing hands. When he donk bets the turn its a pretty solid indicator of strength. Hearts are definitely in his range so he could have made the flush. I possibly would have 3 bet him after he leads out at me to see how he responded. But calling the turn and his small river bet profits being able to see what he's ...



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