Tag Info

Hot answers tagged

7

Yes, you can and you should. The concept you're describing is called implied odds (the estimated profit you'll make if you make your hand). Notice is a much less concrete value as it is an estimation of whether your opponent will call when the draw comes and the amount he'll be willing to pay. There's also the concept of reverse implied odds which are the ...


4

You need to calculate the odds of getting the exact flop that you need. Since the order doesn't matter, the first card dealt would have three possibilities, and then if you got one of those you would have two possibilities on the second card, etc. It would look like this: 3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48 = 1/19,600 = 0.005% EDIT Updated based on your ...


4

The article is correct in the way it uses 4:1 and 5:1. Under their assumptions (actual value given their example is more like 4.2:1), you are "4 to 1" to make it while you are getting "5 to 1" on your money. I'd say that this is precisely because both are written / pronounced / thought of this way that it's convenient. If you check the Wikipedia article on ...


4

It all depends on pot odds. If you have better than 50% pot odds and have 50% equity versus your opponent's range, and you have the bankroll to handle the variance, then you should be looking to play for stacks. This will always produce a long term winning strategy, because you're getting >50% return on a 50% bet. Do you see why? The only situation where ...


4

Assuming you know nothing about the cards dealt, they don't matter, so the 66% holds up. In most calculations we would just ignore the folded cards since we don't have any definite information about them. If you want to factor them in, you can no longer calculate your exact pot equity, since you don't know how often your opponents are folding hands like Ax, ...


3

Without taking into account the fact that the very act of seeing the flop with one or several other player(s) influence the distribution of the flop (*), here's one way how you could compute these odds: you have C(50,3) possible flops: that is 19 600 flops out of these there are 48 cases where you'll improve directly to quads, so the probability to flop ...


3

I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to say with the math that you have in your question, but I think you are trying to show how you get the odds of hitting a flush or a straight on the turn or river when you have 4-to-a-flush/straight-draw on the flop. The same basic strategy of calculating odds can be done to see what your chances are to hit a set on ...


2

If a player is regularly pushing on the flop with top pair, you should call him with an overpair, top pair and a good kicker, or anything better. With a flush draw and two overcards you have about 15 outs, giving you around a 54% edge ignoring any cards that improve their hand. It's a borderline case. It may be worth a call in case they're bluffing, and to ...


2

I agree with Andrew on a theoretical level => if you have the pot odds you should call. I just wanted to put stress on the concept of pot odds. If you are on the flop and have alredy placed some of your money in the middle a coin flip is more than enough to call an all in because you more than double the call prise with a 50% chance. You can see a full ...


2

It's probably better to think of it as a percentage of their range because this is how often they will 'have it' during play. Don't forget that you're also way behind pocket pairs 66+. Say that the opponent's range is something like all pairs, all broadway, all suited aces, and all suited connectors. If you had A5s say, and accounting for card removal ...


2

p is 0.0000046642 Here are two different ways to arrive at that result... If you have XY, there is one way to make "quad X" and C(3,2) ways to make "set Y". If you have XY, there is also one way to make "quad Y" and C(3,2) ways to make "set X". C(3,2) is 3, so starting from XY, there are 6 possibilities to make what you called the "big full house" (very ...


2

I decided to have a go at answering this myself. The situation is you against one other player who has a made hand, and you have N outs. Before the turn, the 1-step EV (ignoring any bets on the river) is EV1 = N/47 * X + (47-N)/47 * (-10) The two-step EV, taking river bets into account, is EV2 = N/47 * X + (47-N)/47 * [ N/46 * (X + 20) + (46-N)/46 ...


1

There are (52 choose 7) = 133784560 total possible hands in 7 card poker. Of these, 12 * 4 * 13 are a "Big Full House." To see why, consider the 12 seven-card hands with four aces and three of a kind, disregarding suit: AAAA222 AAAA666 AAAA101010 AAAA333 AAAA777 AAAAJJJ AAAA444 AAAA888 AAAAQQQ AAAA555 AAAA999 AAAAKKK For each of these 12 hands, ...


1

Since 4:1 are the correct odds for that scenario, it seems that the sentence "If you make this call four times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once." was a mistake, rather than an error. Their intention was probably to say that for every four times you lose you'll win one, or for every five times you play you'll win one. In any case, your ...


1

I only read a part of your question but you can indeed call when odds are not in favor. Implied pot odds is what it's called. Basically you calculate that what you payed too much, you will receive back at the next street(s). An example: Hero and Villain play a pot. On the turn you have a flush draw (giving you 9 outs). This is more or less 19% chance of ...


1

It's hard to do all the exact math to get the exact percentages while you're sitting at the table and everyone is staring at you while you noodle your chances. You have to do it all in your head in less than a minute. The other methods described here are actually more accurate, but I don't think that getting the exact percentage is that important, but you ...



Only top voted, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible