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Assuming random hand distribution and players of equal ability, the probability of winning is 1/x. Of course other factors are involved in real poker, so it's impossible to summarize this in a simple formula. If you are interested in the more specific question of how much cash equity you have in a tournament given the remaining players' stack sizes, you ...


Unfortunately, this is the kind of probability question that would take a couple of hours and reams of paper notes to get the exact answer. But simulating it is easy (I have loads of C code for that). I got about 1 in 500. (205423 hands out of 100000000).

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