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9

When I tell my non-poker playing friends that I play poker they thing I'm gambling - until I give them the following explaination. Poker, played correctly, is not gambling in my opinion. And I think this is a good way to explain EV to non-poker players or new players. The idea in poker is to do two things - make correct decisions based on available ...


8

Probability: the chance of a particular outcome. More precisely, the probability of any given outcome is the ratio of all the favorable outcomes and every outcome that is possible. (so favorable / everything) The probability of throwing 6 with a dice is exactly 1/6 because all the sides are perfectly equal, there are 6 of them but only 1 is favorable in ...


7

Yes, you can and you should. The concept you're describing is called implied odds (the estimated profit you'll make if you make your hand). Notice is a much less concrete value as it is an estimation of whether your opponent will call when the draw comes and the amount he'll be willing to pay. There's also the concept of reverse implied odds which are the ...


5

You haven't provided enough information. This is entirely dependent on what the action was leading to the all-in, current stack sizes, and the frequency with which your opponent is taking said action. I can tell you, just from experience, that your opponent would either need to be very short stacked, ~13-15BB or less, or jamming all-in with a very wide ...


4

Say we have a $1 million raffle that has only two tickets: a winner and a loser. I give you a random ticket and tell you that you MUST sell it. How much money should you sell it for? (I.e. how much is it worth?) A. $1 million? No, because it could just as easily be worth $0. B. $0? No, because it could just as easily be worth $1 million. C. $0.5 million? ...


4

Probably but these "thinking procedures" only apply when given a hand to analyse. When you're sitting at a table, you're aware of everyone's stack sizes, positions, previous actions, table image, etc. all the time so the only things that you really look at in each hand are the pot size and the two cards you put players on. Then, depending on who's in the ...


3

If you're doing this entirely by hand, tracking hand count and hands per hour is a bit overkill in my opinion (unless you're single tabling I suppose). If you figure that on average there are 85 hands an hour per table, you can use that time to instead watch the table. I would definitely factor in your mental state, I use 1-3, as well. This will help you ...


3

I think I would have shoved preflop. You only had 13bbs. So AKs shove in this position is good in my opinion. I dont think he would have been calling you once you shoved over the top either. So in my opinion yes you played it wrong.


3

What kind of plays could I make to convince my opponents that I have a polarised hand range? You don't make plays to convince your opponents that you have a polarized hand range, you just polarize your hand range. If they fail to pick up on that, you've profited greatly. There are generally three types of ranges: Polarized With a polarized range, your ...


3

You can only lose the low hand if you get counterfeit (when a low card hits the board that also pairs one of your low cards), so that you don't hold the nut low on the river anymore. If there is a low hand possible, and no A or 2 on the board, you always have the nut low. At worst, you will split the low pot if someone else also has a A2XX hand. With that ...


3

Definitely yes, its worth it. For example: you play MTTs, in the middle of tournament, and you've got a decent stack of chips (not short stacked). Blinds are going high, and a lot of short stacked players will start going all in. And that's where poker math comes into play. Its the best time to increase your stack by doing some calls, if odds / pot odds are ...


2

If you have a simple 6 side dice you can arrange a simple demonstration. Tell your friends you'll give them 1$ in every throw if the result is 3-6, and they have to pay 1$ if it is 1-2. Tell them you're going to play 5 rounds and what they expect in terms of money won / lost. Then play the game and compare the results to their estimation. Intuitively they ...


2

First of all it's important to explain that EV is a concept rooted in the law of large numbers, and which poker players use to calculate risk and reward. I'll get back to this concept. When calculating EV a poker player takes a few things into consideration: 1) The size of the pot 2) The probability of winning that pot 2) The size of the bet they're faced ...


2

When you say cutoff 3bet 6k i guess you meant he bet 6k. At that point you have 13bb you could push which would increase your stack of about 23% if he folds. If his stack is between 26k-46k your fold equity is pretty high. Against an unknown player it seems to me the best play for you is to push and don't see a flop. Playing post flop would be hard for you ...


2

this page does a very good job of explaining variance and expected value http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/other/variance/


2

I decided to have a go at answering this myself. The situation is you against one other player who has a made hand, and you have N outs. Before the turn, the 1-step EV (ignoring any bets on the river) is EV1 = N/47 * X + (47-N)/47 * (-10) The two-step EV, taking river bets into account, is EV2 = N/47 * X + (47-N)/47 * [ N/46 * (X + 20) + (46-N)/46 ...


2

Many years ago I struggled to play at micro stakes level because the level of the players was so bad... Anyway, once you adapt to it, it's actually really really really easy to win at those micro stakes. If you want to play ABC poker, then go play on low stakes, just outside the micro stake region. Remember, at any level there will be fishes, and one does ...


2

First, be aware that the Chen formula can only be a very rough guideline as to whether to play your hand. It is not the be-all and end-all. Also note that Bill Chen himself said that the formula can only help inform you what hands to play. It can't tell you when you should check, call, raise etc. That said, hands that score well on the Chen formula are ...


2

I have always followed the Sam Farha mantra: Against a good player I can outplay him, but against a poor player I need a hand. Good player recognize a situation in which they may not have the best likely hood of winning a hand. It could be argued it costs them pots, but on the long run it would be a profitable situation. Weaker players don't recognize ...


2

You remind me of a session I had with a poker coach. He had an interesting take on this same scenario and that's to go all-in on the flop - the call would be a "mistake". Your analysis is right on the odds, and yes, you would be frozen-out on odds if the opponent bet's 1000 into you. The thinking was to avoid the exact scenario you're describing. The all-in ...


2

Knowing poker math has helped me bet (and win) the occasional hand by understanding pot odds. That made it "worth it" for me. More to the point, it's worth it for someone who plays "occasionally" or more.


1

This is a fairly straightforward statistics question. You should look into the z-score for further details. If we assume your results against this opponent follows a normal distribution, the Excel formula to answer your question would be: =1-NORMDIST(X, Y * A / 100, Z * SQRT(A / 100), TRUE) That's the probability your opponent will be ahead at least X ...


1

Games that are closer to "real" poker would not be simple enough to be solved. Recent research seems to be mostly focused on HU LHE and programming AI bots to play Game Theoretic Optimally. Most of this work seems to come out of the University of Alberta's Computer Poker Research Group. You can find their publications here. One game that is closer to real ...


1

Low stakes poker is otherwise known as "no fold 'em" poker. Most players for low stakes are "calling stations." This causes you to alter your strategy in two ways: First, when you raise with your big hands (big pairs and AK), as you should, realize that you will raise people in rather than out. That is, you will occasionally win with hands that have a 20-30 ...


1

In lower stakes games I tend to not try the ticks to win the hand, i've found that if I just play my cards the weaker players will just knock each other out at which point I can usually win heads up (6-9 max SNG). Players at lower stakes tend to be quite predictable so if you're the aggressor driving the hand you've probably got the best hand, if they are ...


1

I definitely disagree that it is disadvantageous to play loose or "non standard" at the micro stakes. If you are an experienced midle/high stakes loose player you will have the skill to adjust your palystyle to the opponents. The problem is that if you dont know what you are doing you might often find yourself in bad situations and loose overall. On the ...


1

ABC poker at low stakes is the best way to play. I used to play 10-12 tables at a time on the $0.10/$0.25 tables. Really just folded until I got a strong hand (AA KK AK QQ JJ) and would raise pretty strong if in early positions or just go all in if there were limpers or raises. Maybe not so much with QQ and JJ. You can't focus on an individual table too ...


1

I only read a part of your question but you can indeed call when odds are not in favor. Implied pot odds is what it's called. Basically you calculate that what you payed too much, you will receive back at the next street(s). An example: Hero and Villain play a pot. On the turn you have a flush draw (giving you 9 outs). This is more or less 19% chance of ...


1

Definitely all in preflop, you had a very strong hand and a stack big enough to make him fold. I can see the villain calling there quite often (depending on stack and nature), but at least you get your chips in while you're ahead. Ask yourself, what happens if you completely miss the flop and he fires again? Do you fold with two more cards to come and ...


1

I think you should have re-raised pre flop. After the flop you had 2 to 1 pot odds and only 5 outs which is about 4 to 1 odds in the river. Not enough to call. Besides, with K, Q in the flop there is a good chance your opponent had a better hand (AJ, J10, KK, AA, KQ, QQ, K7, Q7, 77 -KK, Q7 or 77 are unlikely though-). Also, if you would have folded, your ...



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