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12

Not sure if it covers the games you're looking for but it's a useful resource to mention anyway. University of Alberta Computer Poker Research Group Database has something like 10 Million hands for free to download. Check it out. As a side note, their papers about Poker AI and decision making are always very insightful.


9

Against a full table of random hands, AA will win under 30% of the time. Against any individual random hand, AA will win 85% of the time. Presumably, your tournament featured full tables. That means that if you play the hand in a way that keeps too many opponents in the hand, you are going to lose very frequently. In the long run, it will be slightly less ...


7

Caution: Buying hand histories are against rules on most poker sites! Anyway... The most known shops with handhistories are : http://www.hhsmithy.com/ http://www.pokertableratings.com/buy-hand-histories I have never tried them, so I can't tell you anything about usefullnes of these services, also I'm not sure if they provide tournaments histories. Long ...


5

To answer the question, "What is exactly N% of top hands?", there really is no correct answer as it depends on the stage of play (i.e. Preflop, Postflop) that's currently occuring. Specifically, it isn't VPIP/PFR. Making use of these programs and hand-rankings is a matter of hand reading skill. The hand-rankings are a generalization of how a player should ...


5

Typically, live play will mean you're seeing between 30-50 hands per hour. In your case, this will mean that you've seen somewhere in the region of 7,000 hands. This is an incredibly low number to make any significant, reliable assumptions about the StDev of your win-rate. The data set simply isn't large enough to be approaching what we'd consider a normal ...


5

There are two major players in this field: Hold'em Manager and Poker Tracker. Both provide the type of in-depth number crunching and statistical analysis that you're looking for, and they do it way better than anything you would roll on your own. They track things that few players would even think to look at without first seeing the information available in ...


5

You can´t be certain just from bb/hand value, if you are winning because of skill or long upswing. There surely isn´t any magic number of hands, which makes you certain about your actual winrate, the only thing we can measure is, how propable is your winrate in certain range. This calculation depends HEAVILY on the game you play, and also on your ...


5

Judging from what you wrote in the question, I think you are misunderstanding a few concepts here. First, math is math. Math doesn't care if you play poker, running, feeding your dog or doing something else. Math's laws are universal. This means that the math will have the same precision both in the heat of the battle and after the session is over and you ...


5

This is a binomial distribution: either you miss the flop or you don't. If your probability to NOT miss is .32, then your probability to miss is 1 - .32 = .68. Your number of trials is 22. The expected number of missing is 22 * .68 = 14.96. The variance of the binomial distribution is np(1-p). In your case, 22*.68*(1-.68) = 4.7872. The standard deviation ...


4

The common conditions/rules of being independent from luck in the tournament: 1) You are playing tournament with deep stacks and reasonable blind level lengths. It means turbo tournaments with 5 minutes per level contain enough luck-dependent situations. Not playing "turbos" will allow to avoid rapid short stack preflop all-in situation. 2) You don't ...


4

Try this link, Holdem preflop matchups. It's a zip file of all PF matchups in table form I think. Other than that, use a search engine using the terms "poker" "hand" "matchups", or some other variation with "preflop" and "probability" in there.


4

Disclaimer: All of what follows applies only to winning players. For non-winning players, none of this matters a whit. I'm not going to discuss actual, hard numbers as most people familiar with StdDev in poker will declare something that can be interpreted as "StdDev is completely useless until you have 100k+ hands," -- a sentiment I disagree with in ...


4

One of the easiest things you can look at is which hands are making money and which hands are losing money. Sort by number of blinds won/lost per hand type if you can, and then start at the bottom. These are the hands that are losing the most money and are very likely your worst leaks. You will probably be surprised at which hands you find here! Either ...


4

If such a player is approximating a game-theoretic-optimal (GTO) strategy, then they are essentially putting their opponent in a situation where it doesn't matter what they do. In other words, whatever information you believe you could glean from their play will not help you alter their expectation (i.e., reduce their expectation while increasing yours). ...


3

pokerstove is the thing you are looking for!


3

I'm no mathematician, but I think the joker switches the rankings of full houses and flushes. With 53 cards, you have c(53,5) or 2,869,685 possible poker hands. I'm using this site http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_poker_hands as a reference for normal deck hand numbers. 5 of a kind This has to be exactly 4 cards of the same rank plus the joker. So ...


3

That depends on what sort of confidence level you would like to have. You can never be 100% sure. What you can calculate is the probability that your true win rate is within a given range, based on your measured win rate, sample size, and standard deviation. To do this, you would take several 100 hand samples, measure average win rate, and standard ...


2

AA percentage of against one random hand is 85% for win (all-in preflop). Probability is not distributed symmetric or something, you have 4 of 5 times then you hit this 15% but in long term you will be profitable from that EV+ decisions!


2

Practice, practice, practice, research, more practice. I find that it's an iterative cycle. I find a game I'm interested in and I learn the rules. Then I start playing, with friends, online for play money, where ever. Then, as I get the basics down I start looking to improve by reading books, blogs, etc. Then the cycle repeats. I'll find there's a hole or ...


2

First off, the statement in your question is not the norm: They have an obvious advantage of knowing about more cards that are in the play than they should, and they can strategically bet against one another to increase the pot (encouraging other players to play in hopes of winning). Almost always when players collude, they are typically protecting ...


2

I know several people who've been asking about this for years. Intuitively - you'd think the answer is surely yes. It's also pretty easy to construct scenarios in which you'd think you'd gain an advantage. However - the reason I suspect you don't gain a significant advantage is that, as long as I've been playing Foxwoods and Vegas - the casinos make ...


2

They have an obvious advantage and so will earn more in the long run, that's pretty clear! Also playing together and playing both separately would lead to the same amount money, so they are not risking more money just together (same argument for the profits.) Now I don't really know to much about collusion and specifically what edge it can give you but I ...


2

Your partition (underdog/favorite, hand won/lost) won't reveals many things as you will have to work on average. This will give you the performance of your hand range (supposed constant) versus and average hand range met in tournaments. A long term moving average will give you the evolution of your handrange performance. The deviation will give you the ...


2

I have started doing a bit more analysis in my games. I load up HEM2 before a session and review a few tournaments from the day before. I mainly look at the hands where I have lost the most money and see how it could have been avoided. Look for the following: Should I have been in the hand in the first place? Did I play a marginal hand too aggressively? ...


2

This information is not supposed to be public because no player would want to have their playstyle completely analyzed. Something you can do is approach players directly(maybe via forums like http://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/) and ask is someone is willing to share his/her stats with you. I doubt that any pros would ever do that but if you explain why you ...


2

There's a 23.30% chance the other players have one of {66+, A7+}. Yes, there is an easy way to calculate the chance of a dominating hand behind you. You can use a program like ProPokerTools Odds Oracle to model the scenario and determine the probabilities. There is a free trial available. Below is a screenshot of the calculation as well as the log file. ...


1

TL;DR Given a flush on the board, five players will split 19.7% of the time, or about once every 5 hands. Given a fresh deal, the deal will come up with a flush showing and a five-way split 0.0389% of the time, or once every 2,569 hands. Some general probabilities Overall odds that none of the five players have a given suit (say, hearts): comb(39,10) / ...


1

I think the real question here is with a 5 card flush on the board what is the chance that out of 5 players none have one of the remaining 8 flush cards? The answer is 12.3% The odds of player one’s first card is not a flush suit is 39 of the remaining 47. We can see 5 cards, so 52-5 = 47 available cards. Of those 47 there are eight flush cards remaining so ...


1

The poker sites I've played offer me these stats: (1) Number of flops seen in the BB position (2) Number of flops seen in the SB position (3) Number of flops seen in other positions (4) Number of flops seen in total (5) Hands won at showdown (6) Hands won without showdown Where applicable these are also displayed in terms of a ...


1

Am I misunderstanding your question? If we are to assume that all players in a tournament have the same skill level, then the probability at a given time of a player winning the tournmanet is equal to the number of chips he has over the total number of chips in play, at that time. So varying the stacks simply would increase/decrease the liklihood of winning ...



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