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6

My interpretation is that mathematically, the expectation in EV is taken across the probability distribution of poker cards that are yet to be dealt in a particular hand as well as the randomness in opponents' play, and it is assumed that every other piece of information (including situation, position, etc) you can have is already taken into account when you ...


5

This is a binomial distribution: either you miss the flop or you don't. If your probability to NOT miss is .32, then your probability to miss is 1 - .32 = .68. Your number of trials is 22. The expected number of missing is 22 * .68 = 14.96. The variance of the binomial distribution is np(1-p). In your case, 22*.68*(1-.68) = 4.7872. The standard deviation ...


5

If such a player is approximating a game-theoretic-optimal (GTO) strategy, then they are essentially putting their opponent in a situation where it doesn't matter what they do. In other words, whatever information you believe you could glean from their play will not help you alter their expectation (i.e., reduce their expectation while increasing yours). ...


5

Judging from what you wrote in the question, I think you are misunderstanding a few concepts here. First, math is math. Math doesn't care if you play poker, running, feeding your dog or doing something else. Math's laws are universal. This means that the math will have the same precision both in the heat of the battle and after the session is over and you ...


3

This is likely to be very situation dependent. There is however, a section in the PokerTracker tool that analyses the range of common actions that players have taken, (eg. Cbet flop, fold to flop Cbet, 3bet stats, aggression stats, etc.), and gives a broad estimate of how often profitable players are taking those actions, whilst comparing your stats ...


3

There are five board cards in hold'em. Since you start with two known cards, there are 50 unknown. That means there are 50x49x48x47x46 ways the board can come. Since the order of the cards on the board doesn't matter, divide that by the number of ways 5 cards can be arranged (120), that's 2118760 total distinct boards. There are 47x46/2 of those boards that ...


2

EV is pure math and is based on cards. Although there are cases as @Chris Farmer said where the EV may be positive but even the slight chance that you have to lose should ignore the EV. Such case are the satellite tournaments where a number of players get exact prize and another number of players get exact nothing. In such cases a 80+% winning chance (or ...


2

No, the EV is the EV. But probability is a function of knowledge. Your estimate of the likelihood of the various events that go into your calculation of EV will change over time with new information, so that what may seem like the "same situation" to you at different times might actually be a very different situation when you take into account your added ...


2

In this case "short term" implies that you may have specific situational context that might be relevant to this narrow class of decisions. Say you're in a NLHE game and you have aces pre-flop and you know that you're sitting immediately to the right of a a big-stacked aggressive opponent who will very often punish your limp with a big raise. Since he's been ...


2

Your VP would still be 33% as you could have raised/called when you were in SB and BB - the tracker will only exclude walks where action was folded round to your BB. As for the PFR, this generally means 2-bets so will also be 33% given you raised once out of three hands where you had the option to. Your 3-bet and 4-bet stats are recorded separately and ...


1

I once spent an afternoon analyzing 7-2 with Poker Probe (An old program by Mike Caro). I was curious if there was any situation that justified making a call with 2-7. PP was a pretty simple program, you could run a hand against a configurable hand, or a number of random hands. It for example could tell you how often a particular hand would hold up against a ...


1

It seems the "Adjusted" description relates to a calculation involving ICM. Ripped direct from the PT4 forums, posted by the mod WhiteRider: (See the whole thread here) "My C" means "My Currency", and implies a monetary stat. "My C Net Adjusted" is your expected winnings based on the difference in ICM values between your actual chip stack at the ...


1

Going by probabilities where the expected value is the average of the sums of all possible outcomes in the set, the standard application of EV in poker is for hand analysis, meaning did I make the right decision based on the current pot, cards, and previous play. In this sense we are dealing with constant values and your best estimation of the opponent and ...


1

EV is a mathematical term that only makes sense on the long run. In probability theory, the expected value of a random variable is intuitively the long-run average value of repetitions of the experiment it represents Thus there's just one value of EV which more or less translate to "the expected total value if we were to repeat this draw an infinite (or in ...



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