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EV is pure math and is based on cards. Although there are cases as @Chris Farmer said where the EV may be positive but even the slight chance that you have to lose should ignore the EV. Such case are the satellite tournaments where a number of players get exact prize and another number of players get exact nothing. In such cases a 80+% winning chance (or ...


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No, the EV is the EV. But probability is a function of knowledge. Your estimate of the likelihood of the various events that go into your calculation of EV will change over time with new information, so that what may seem like the "same situation" to you at different times might actually be a very different situation when you take into account your added ...


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In this case "short term" implies that you may have specific situational context that might be relevant to this narrow class of decisions. Say you're in a NLHE game and you have aces pre-flop and you know that you're sitting immediately to the right of a a big-stacked aggressive opponent who will very often punish your limp with a big raise. Since he's been ...



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