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seen Jan 13 '12 at 15:38

Jan
12
comment Should I call this river overbet with an overpair?
His plays don't make that much sense to me, which makes me want to call him. I think AA/KK you probably see him defending his turf preflop instead of just calling. Tx doesn't seem strong enough to slow-play so I think you see him trying to wrest initiative back with a raise when he hits top pair off the flop. If he did manage to slow-play something big, I think you'd see a value bet on the river. Your bets looked like pretty standard continuation play and didn't give him any reason to believe you'd call an all-in bet. All in all, smells like the tell Jeff mentioned above.
Jan
12
awarded  Supporter
Jan
10
comment What are the odds I will hit my flush?
Another trick that some people use to estimate your odds of hitting a single draw card in any situation: going into the turn, multiply your number of outs (in this case, 9 Spades) by 4 to get approximate odds (i.e. 9 * 4 = 36%, which is close to the 35% we calculated above). Going into the river, multiply by 2 (9 * 2 = 18%, close to the 19% we calculated above). For example, if you have an outside straight draw with 8 outs going into the turn, you have about a 8 * 4 = 32% chance of hitting it by the river (actual chance is 31.4%, so it's close again). Some people call this the "2-4 rule".
Jan
10
comment What are the odds I will hit my flush?
If you're holding two, say, Spades, and there are two more on the board along with one other card, that leaves (52-5) = 47 other cards, of which (13-4) = 9 are Spades. Your chance of hitting the flush on the turn is 9/47 = 19.15% (about 1 in 5). If you don't hit on the turn, your change of hitting the river is 9/46 = 19.57%. Your overall chances are 19.15% + (19.57% * (1-0.1915)) = almost exactly 35%.