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Oct
20
revised How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
added 74 characters in body
Oct
20
comment How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
For the sake of completeness: there's 10.77% to flop a set, 0.74% to flop a full house and 0.245% to flop quads, which adds up to 11.75%. This 11.75% corresponds to the often mentioned "7.5:1" (1 / 8.5 is "7.5 to 1") odds to improve to a set or better at flop when you hold a pocket pair.
Oct
20
comment How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
(*) when you go to the flop your opponents is, for example, much more likely to hold AA than 72o. Studies over billions of online hands have shown that the distribution of flop cards is skewed due to this kind of "card removal effect" or whatever it is called.
Oct
20
answered How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
Oct
20
comment How precise is math in the heat of battle?
are you sure you can tell someone who's really calculating something from someone who is pretending to be calculating something? There are people who can do really great acting while their eventual action is a no-brainer. By taking time (say by trying to compute mentally "9879 times 3642"), they'd then put you off: you'd start thinking they have a hand requiring complicated calculation and you'd then totally miss their no-brainer hand. I really don't think "calculating" can be counter-productive because there's no way to know for sure one is doing that.
Sep
30
awarded  Explainer
Sep
29
comment Run it more than once
@nsw: this... It reduces the variance due to all-ins. Note that "just chop the pot based on your equity" would require everybody in the deal who folded to reveal their holecards, which some players who folded would probably have issue with.
Jul
25
revised Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
edited body
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
A p of 0.0000046624 instead of 0.00000116605 is still not an excuse for OP to hold his K3 ; )
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
note that (13 * 12 * 4) / C(52,7) is identical to my result.
Jul
25
revised Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
added 366 characters in body
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
that is not correct, your p is too low... From the moment you have quads "AAAA", there are C(4,3) possible ways to make a set of, say, "222" with a deck which has four deuces. Computing it the way you did (drawing 7 cards from the deck), p is: (13 * 12 * 4) / C(52,7) if I'm not mistaken. I took another approach and gave the two p depending on whether you start with a pocket pair or not.
Jul
25
revised Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
deleted 24 characters in body
Jul
25
revised Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
added 5 characters in body
Jul
24
answered Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
Jul
22
comment How do you know that you “got your money in good”?
Bean: are you asking specifically about calling all-in or betting/raising all-in (in which case you also have fold equity) or both?
Jul
7
comment Is there a situation where just calling is justified with AK on a QKA suited flop?
@David Hirst: You wrote: "At the very least they have AK with a spade." But the board is AKQ and OP said it was all spades, so a player cannot have both AK and a spade. Which is kinda important because there are several hands which can have hit that board hard but still be very vulnerable to a fourth spade. So you may want to edit a bit that paragraph of your answer.
Jun
27
comment How good are the best poker bots?
(...) in No-Limit Hold'em. And that is not just for today's machine: unless major discoveries are made in AI there's simply no way No-Limit Hold'em are able to compete with good players. Regarding cheating: yes, it is considering cheating and PokerStars, for example, actively chases bots (and confiscates any fund found on botters' account). They scan the memory of the computer, they analyse mouse & click movements / patterns / etc. Bots also have a very hard time on site where players can regularly change their screen names...
Jun
27
comment How good are the best poker bots?
despite sharing many of the same rules, Limit Hold'em and No-Limit Hold'em are two entirely different game from a game theory standpoint. Limit Hold'em is pretty much fully "solved" and the best bot can play basically as well as the best Limit Hold'em players in the world. No-Limit Hold'em? There may be a few bots at the lower stakes on the poker sites which do not heavily track them able to grind some money, but there's no way a No-Limit Hold'em bot is winning a major tournament any time soon. The combinatorial explosion of possible game states is way too big (...)
Jun
27
comment Bully short stacks later on or try knock them out?
the SB cannot "raise to 1BB". Did you mean that he limped (half a BB seen that he's the SB) into your BB?