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visits member for 2 years, 10 months
seen Nov 16 at 21:26

Nov
5
awarded  Critic
Nov
5
comment Kill game, how does it change your starting hand value?
"...please disqualify yourself from answering". Please stop giving orders and being rude to other users. In another comment you asked an user to "think" and "please delete your question". Now you're asking others to "please disqualify yourself from answering". I'm sorry but that is extremely rude and this is not how StackExchange works. Nobody would be losing anything if you were to begin to show some courtesy in your questions / comments / meta posts.
Nov
2
comment Missing the flop with AK
@Jon: note by the way that this is StackExchange and comments like "do us a favor and delete this question" simply because you do not like it have zero place on StackExchange sites. If you don't like this question, vote to close it. Moreover theoretical questions like pure probabilities ones (say "How many different possible five cards boards exists?") which are in no way related to improving one's skills are totally fine here.
Nov
2
comment Missing the flop with AK
@Jon: and don't get me wrong: I'm not saying that a 0.02% chance means nobody is going to experience that. It's a mathematical fact that some players are bound to experience that: but it is nonetheless extremely rare. During my years as an online poker players I've lived through several scandals (including but not limited to the AP/UB one where the software was rigged to allow superuser accounts) and one of the reason I've been a winning player is that I knew when to left shaddy sites.
Nov
2
comment Missing the flop with AK
@Jon: Totally disagree. It is a known and documented fact that there are rigged online poker websites out there (there are even companies advertising poker server software for which the "riggedness" is configurable at will). There's a 0.02% chance of not flopping at least a pair 22 times in a row when holding AK: if this happened to OP, he's totally right to ask such a question. To me if this happened to OP and if OP is playing on one of the lesser known and potentially shaddy site, this may be a good time to try one of the more legit site out there.
Oct
31
awarded  Custodian
Oct
31
reviewed Approve suggested edit on Is chopping the blinds accepted everywhere?
Oct
20
revised How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
added 74 characters in body
Oct
20
comment How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
For the sake of completeness: there's 10.77% to flop a set, 0.74% to flop a full house and 0.245% to flop quads, which adds up to 11.75%. This 11.75% corresponds to the often mentioned "7.5:1" (1 / 8.5 is "7.5 to 1") odds to improve to a set or better at flop when you hold a pocket pair.
Oct
20
comment How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
(*) when you go to the flop your opponents is, for example, much more likely to hold AA than 72o. Studies over billions of online hands have shown that the distribution of flop cards is skewed due to this kind of "card removal effect" or whatever it is called.
Oct
20
answered How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
Oct
20
comment How precise is math in the heat of battle?
are you sure you can tell someone who's really calculating something from someone who is pretending to be calculating something? There are people who can do really great acting while their eventual action is a no-brainer. By taking time (say by trying to compute mentally "9879 times 3642"), they'd then put you off: you'd start thinking they have a hand requiring complicated calculation and you'd then totally miss their no-brainer hand. I really don't think "calculating" can be counter-productive because there's no way to know for sure one is doing that.
Sep
30
awarded  Explainer
Sep
29
comment Run it more than once
@nsw: this... It reduces the variance due to all-ins. Note that "just chop the pot based on your equity" would require everybody in the deal who folded to reveal their holecards, which some players who folded would probably have issue with.
Jul
25
revised Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
edited body
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
A p of 0.0000046624 instead of 0.00000116605 is still not an excuse for OP to hold his K3 ; )
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
note that (13 * 12 * 4) / C(52,7) is identical to my result.
Jul
25
revised Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
added 366 characters in body
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
that is not correct, your p is too low... From the moment you have quads "AAAA", there are C(4,3) possible ways to make a set of, say, "222" with a deck which has four deuces. Computing it the way you did (drawing 7 cards from the deck), p is: (13 * 12 * 4) / C(52,7) if I'm not mistaken. I took another approach and gave the two p depending on whether you start with a pocket pair or not.
Jul
25
revised Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
deleted 24 characters in body