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seen Oct 27 at 2:52

Oct
20
comment How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
For the sake of completeness: there's 10.77% to flop a set, 0.74% to flop a full house and 0.245% to flop quads, which adds up to 11.75%. This 11.75% corresponds to the often mentioned "7.5:1" (1 / 8.5 is "7.5 to 1") odds to improve to a set or better at flop when you hold a pocket pair.
Oct
20
comment How do I calculate the odds of making a four of a kind by the river given I have a pair?
(*) when you go to the flop your opponents is, for example, much more likely to hold AA than 72o. Studies over billions of online hands have shown that the distribution of flop cards is skewed due to this kind of "card removal effect" or whatever it is called.
Oct
20
comment How precise is math in the heat of battle?
are you sure you can tell someone who's really calculating something from someone who is pretending to be calculating something? There are people who can do really great acting while their eventual action is a no-brainer. By taking time (say by trying to compute mentally "9879 times 3642"), they'd then put you off: you'd start thinking they have a hand requiring complicated calculation and you'd then totally miss their no-brainer hand. I really don't think "calculating" can be counter-productive because there's no way to know for sure one is doing that.
Sep
29
comment Run it more than once
@nsw: this... It reduces the variance due to all-ins. Note that "just chop the pot based on your equity" would require everybody in the deal who folded to reveal their holecards, which some players who folded would probably have issue with.
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
A p of 0.0000046624 instead of 0.00000116605 is still not an excuse for OP to hold his K3 ; )
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
note that (13 * 12 * 4) / C(52,7) is identical to my result.
Jul
25
comment Four of a kind and Three of a kind at the same time. What are the odds?
that is not correct, your p is too low... From the moment you have quads "AAAA", there are C(4,3) possible ways to make a set of, say, "222" with a deck which has four deuces. Computing it the way you did (drawing 7 cards from the deck), p is: (13 * 12 * 4) / C(52,7) if I'm not mistaken. I took another approach and gave the two p depending on whether you start with a pocket pair or not.
Jul
22
comment How do you know that you “got your money in good”?
Bean: are you asking specifically about calling all-in or betting/raising all-in (in which case you also have fold equity) or both?
Jul
7
comment Is there a situation where just calling is justified with AK on a QKA suited flop?
@David Hirst: You wrote: "At the very least they have AK with a spade." But the board is AKQ and OP said it was all spades, so a player cannot have both AK and a spade. Which is kinda important because there are several hands which can have hit that board hard but still be very vulnerable to a fourth spade. So you may want to edit a bit that paragraph of your answer.
Jun
27
comment How good are the best poker bots?
(...) in No-Limit Hold'em. And that is not just for today's machine: unless major discoveries are made in AI there's simply no way No-Limit Hold'em are able to compete with good players. Regarding cheating: yes, it is considering cheating and PokerStars, for example, actively chases bots (and confiscates any fund found on botters' account). They scan the memory of the computer, they analyse mouse & click movements / patterns / etc. Bots also have a very hard time on site where players can regularly change their screen names...
Jun
27
comment How good are the best poker bots?
despite sharing many of the same rules, Limit Hold'em and No-Limit Hold'em are two entirely different game from a game theory standpoint. Limit Hold'em is pretty much fully "solved" and the best bot can play basically as well as the best Limit Hold'em players in the world. No-Limit Hold'em? There may be a few bots at the lower stakes on the poker sites which do not heavily track them able to grind some money, but there's no way a No-Limit Hold'em bot is winning a major tournament any time soon. The combinatorial explosion of possible game states is way too big (...)
Jun
27
comment Bully short stacks later on or try knock them out?
the SB cannot "raise to 1BB". Did you mean that he limped (half a BB seen that he's the SB) into your BB?
Apr
21
comment How is players raising each other indefinitely prevented?
if you and a friend log to a poker site and go to an heads-up (two players only) table, you can try it for yourself. You can min-raise (i.e. raise by the minimal valid amount), min-raise, min-raise, min-raise, min-raise, min-raise, etc. There's no rule limiting the number of raises AFAICT. You'll be able to do it until you run out of chips: "infinite" is a very strong word and a stack of chips is not anywhere near close to "infinite" : )
Mar
23
comment Question on Odds, Pot Odds and Expected Values
@Stefan: Indeed, I noticed I did a silly computation mistake, leading to values being to high (which you noticed too). So I deleted the buggy part of my answer and will repost it when I find the time to post the correct values : ) (probably tomorrow or so)
Mar
19
comment KK on small blind vs Calling Station
@Jubbat: He described his opponent as an "incredible calling station" which was playing "50% of his hands". These are terribly bad players who are going to overplay any pair (even middle pair). There are no more decisions to be made after the opponent calls all-in: OP is results oriented because he focus on having lost the hand (despite being 80% favorite). Regarding a draw: KK is 66% favorite against a "likely straight draw" you mention. That is definitely a huge favorite. Having straight draws calling you all-in here would be immensely EV+ too.
Apr
20
comment Easy to memorize starting hand strategy
Are we sure we want to vote this for closing? There are, sadly, very few questions on poker.SE and this looks like a perfectly valid question: starting hand charts and "memo-technique" tricks to remember them may be a cool addition to the site. To me it's a +1 and not a vote for close. Also, at this point and seen the low trafic here I think downvote and vote for close should be commented...
Apr
11
comment NL600: River Decision IP vs TAG 3 Barrel
@Toby Booth: I'm not asking for opponent's cards but what did you end up doing?
Apr
11
comment NL600: River Decision IP vs TAG 3 Barrel
@Toby Booth: effective stacks are $889 and he already put $401 in, so he has $488 left. If you put him allin if I did correct calcs there shall be $1259 in the pot and he would get about 3:1 on his call. If he has a little something (which I think is very often the case), it would come down to how often he thinks you're making a move here (after calling preflop, flop and turn). But anyway, to me after a passive preflop, flop and turn the river is not the time to be aggressive: you don't represent a 4, nor an A (AK would 3-bet pre or fold later on, AQ would raise, AJ would fold, etc.).
Apr
8
comment Why does 555 beat QQQ in this Doyle vs Elezra hand?
+1... I edited your answer a bit. (erf, editing my comment: I don't have full edit rights yet on poker.stackexchange.com so my edit needs peer-reviewing ; )
Apr
3
comment In Omaha, Is it allowed to only show two holecards at showdown when claiming the pot?
oh ok +1... So I didn't see things either ; ) Oh well, I take it that this summer (where I plan to play some live Omaha) I'll ask too when sitting down!