4,237 reputation
21036
bio website twitter.com/tmte
location London, United Kingdom
age
visits member for 2 years, 9 months
seen 2 hours ago

Currently: Betting on everything, everywhere.


Apr
13
comment Systematic all-in
@TTT ...you're also assuming that villain still calls shoves now he has a 10x buy-in stack! I think we've past the realms of reasonable assumptions ;)!
Apr
13
comment Systematic all-in
@TTT I don't think it matters because even as Hero's odd's of winning decrease, his earnings from each win still cover his losses (+EV). Hero's losses still only equate to 100bbs no matter how many opponents are in the hand. I think you can see that too :)
Apr
13
comment Systematic all-in
I think the "double bet" strategy you mention is the Martingale system. I could be wrong!
Apr
1
comment Strategy Against Aggressive, Maniacal Player
What I mean is that you may be called only by a stronger (although still worse) range when just shoving, which amounts to a huge overbet and slightly worse equity! Alternatively, re-raising (not shoving, yet!) may mean villain will re-re-raise with a broader range and thus you profit more by, perhaps, shoving over this bet. It's an overly simplistic example that I make, but my thoughts are that even adding a little nuance to Hero's play here, will reap greater rewards than the initial suggestion you made.
Mar
31
comment Strategy Against Aggressive, Maniacal Player
Although I believe this is OK, just making a standard raise with the range you suggest and generally playing for stacks regardless of the flop (If it gets that far, without being All-in Preflop) would be superior to just shoving.
Mar
20
comment Equity calculation at brick and mortar poker
Seriously, experience and practice. Time learning these situations away from the table, using the same tools as for online, will help your live game. I'll think about this more specifically later.
Mar
13
comment Position advantage on the table and odds
But, can you define it quantitatively?
Mar
12
comment Starting hands probability
@TTT Oops, Typo. Just mixed them up ;) Thanks for catching that! Fixing now.
Mar
11
comment Pocket pair starting hands vs. probability of opponent having a pocket pair
If the current table has errors, perhaps replace it with the one that doesn't?!
Mar
11
comment Starting hands probability
Just to add additional info, as you mention, "Combinations" DON'T consider the relative order of items, whereas "Permutations" DO consider the relative order of items.
Mar
7
comment When to fold AA pre-flop?
Could you clarify how you came to the conclusion on percentage of BR to risk using Kelly. It seems off to me?!
Mar
6
comment Converting Backdoor Draws Into Equity
Nicely explained Chris. @emanuele using the "Rule of 4-2" will be valid for this if you modify it to use it more like a "Rule of 2-2" where you calculate the odds of ONLY the next combination of cards that you want. Look here to get some info on estimating the probability of drawing outs.
Mar
5
comment Converting Backdoor Draws Into Equity
@emanuele I've made a few edits to your question. If this wasn't your intention for the question to be structured this way, please don't hesitate to re-edit. After all, it's your question. I thought it was worth editing, and believed this is what you are trying to ask.
Mar
1
comment Mathematical Derivation of the Chen Formula
hmmmm, I appreciate your patience. You ask "How the Chen Formula is calculated?". In the potential duplicate question offered by @SoboLAN, the very first link gives the answer. Is that what you mean by "derivation"? If not, and I understand the term has a specific mathematical interpretation, then for the time being you may be asking the wrong group. That said, the formula is somewhat built from Chen's own empirical evidence, and some more precise research into NLHE mathematics. The question is potentially valid, I just get the feeling that users believe this Q has already been asked.
Feb
23
comment When to fold AA pre-flop?
@gonvaled So this isn't a question about equity then? If I have AA and I can afford to bet thousands of bb, or more, on this one hand then i'd do it in a heartbeat! 'Risk of Ruin' will factor into it, but that's relative to your individual preferences regarding going broke.
Feb
23
comment Mathematical Derivation of the Chen Formula
@hmmmm If you could clarify the specifics of the question you're asking and then use that as the title, that would help define the usefulness of this thread.
Feb
23
comment When to fold AA pre-flop?
@gonvaled If we're discussing limits regarding how much you're prepared to wager on a hand like this, then that's about bankroll/risk management and nothing to do with making correct decisions based on equity. Totally different question.
Feb
22
comment What happens if the card wasn't burned?
The cards are already randomized by the first shuffle so doing it again seems of little use. I suppose its reasonable either way.
Feb
21
comment What happens if the card wasn't burned?
@ChristopherLates Burning cards isn't used as a randomizing factor. It's to stop various methods of card finesse/cheating.
Feb
21
comment What happens if the card wasn't burned?
I've never seen nor heard of reshuffling the deck. Any casino i've ever been to doesn't do this. They just make others aware of the exposed card, still use it as a burn card, and then deal the normal sequence.