Opponent is a TAG. 23/19/2.8 (VPIP/PFR/AF) over ~600 hands. He's opening ~23% from MP. I've been playing slightly tighter, around 20/15/1.7 which given our table dynamics, I believe I looked less aggressive than you'd expect from someone with these stats.
The blinds are slightly looser than us both, but importantly they are generally passive and straight-forward. Villain seems to understand who to take advantage of and who not to get out of line with. At a few showdowns he's been able to extract thin-value from opponents calling too wide so my read is he's capable of betting with a wider range of marginal and value hands in this spot.
What would you do here?
p.s. [To be clear, I'm not complaining. I just think we're capable of better answers. I like upvoting stuff, so please do your best to make it worth it!] I've made a few of these questions now, and it seems that either some people aren't bothered to put more detailed analysis into their answers or they aren't sure how to. I should say that short answers aren't that useful. Anyone can do that! I can do that!! What I'm looking for and hoping will become the standard are detailed answers that use some range analysis, possible equity analysis (if applicable). I've done the detailed analysis myself, but I'm asking it here because I'd like to get the communities input as well.
Sincerely, Thanks.
$6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
SB: $681
BB: $1401
UTG: $640
MP: $889
Hero (CO): $961
BTN: $597
Pre Flop: Hero is CO has 6♠ 5♠
1 folds, MP raises to $18, Hero calls $18, 3 folds
Flop: ($45, 2 players) Q♣ 5⋄ 3♠
MP bets $39, Hero calls $39
Turn: ($123, 2 players) 2♠
MP bets $96, Hero calls $96
River: ($315) A⋄
MP bets $248, Hero?