What are the odds of getting the same card, example 2 of clubs, back to back to back three hands in a row. It seems to always happen when dealers are tired at the poker house where I play. Yes it happens a lot and is it normal. I played again last night and received in one hour of play, same hand back to back twice, same card back to back 4 times, and saw the same flop back to back once. Just one hour of play. Seems like poor shuffling to me, I am fairly new, let me know if I am on the wrong path, or do the dealers need more training.
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2My first attempt at the math I get once every 325 hands. Not that uncommon.– Lee Daniel CrockerCommented Aug 10, 2015 at 15:53
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You can politely ask the dealer to "wash" the deck of cards and he will gracefully do it.– yazanproCommented Aug 10, 2015 at 18:30
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I would say the dealers need less training. All of the things that you mentioned are likely to happen eventually. But for all of those to happen including the same flop twice in a row (suits and ranks) all in a single hour, is pretty unlikely. Poor shuffling would not account for that. So if it does happen, maybe your dealer is a skilled mechanic and needs less training!– TTTCommented Aug 10, 2015 at 18:34
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About the same as getting AKs– Tech SavantCommented Aug 19, 2015 at 4:15
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2 Answers
I get about once every 325 hands. Not that uncommon.
answered Aug 11, 2015 at 19:31
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2Note to moderator: the first four words of the question are "what are the odds?" This is an answer, not a comment. Please read the help center article your deletion pointed me to. It clearly does not apply. Commented Aug 11, 2015 at 19:32
You need more training not the dealers. Actually its neither, it is the people who set policy on the amount of time a deck is used, the policy for replacing stored cards etc. that could use a little more training.
When a shuffle is poor, the cards are being shuffled into fairly big clumps. Now since the dealer deals one card at a time, if the deck is clumpy you will tend to never see the same two cards in your hand. On the other end of the spectrum is when the shuffle is done in a very consistent manner. The dealer cuts the deck perfectly in the middle, then riffles the cards perfectly. This gives the shuffle predictability. In either case the shuffle adds enough entropy so that the likelihood of repeating hands is not really changed in any significant way.
It is not the dealers shuffle that is causing a high instance of repeating hands. It is the deck. Cards are not perfect. As time goes on the cards pick up wear and tear. Cards also break and are replaced with cards from another source.
As blades dull, and dies wear the consistency of the cards began to vary slightly. The quantity and dispersion of the ink on the cards will cause them to react differently to changes in weather. The way the cards are stored will cause differences, the card on top will always wrap slightly more then the card on the bottom for example.
Plastic Kem cards are very expensive. Most poker rooms replace broken cards. This introduces even more dramatic flaws into a deck.
Any flaw is going to introduce a mathematically significant bias into the deck. A stripper card (A card that is slightly larger then the others) is going to tend to stop in the shuffle at another stripper card more often as example.
The list of flaws is long. Cards are a little wider, a little longer, a little thicker, varying radius on corners, different lots of plastic, different lots of ink all contribute to inconsistency that add bias to a shuffle that result in some cards grouping on flops and in hands more then others.
