5

How (and why) do you play this hand as big stack on the bubble of a short-handed SNG? All players are reasonably skilled. BB has played pretty tight in the previous ~100 hands this tournament, and in several past tournaments, and is probably not quite aggressive enough with a shortish stack, but he's solid with a big stack. Payout is: $700 for first; $300 for second; $0 for third.

Blinds: 50/100
SB: 2,920 (29.2 bb)
BB: 1,925 (19.3 bb)
BTN: 5,155 (51.6 bb) with 3⋄ 4♠

Preflop: (150)
BTN raises to 287, SB folds, BB calls 187

Flop: (624) 5♣ 2♣ Q⋄ (2 players)

BB checks, BTN bets 468, BB raises to 1,147, BTN?

Improve this question
2
  • Are those stacks after or prior to posting?
    – Loc Nguyen
    Commented Jul 17, 2012 at 17:18
  • 1
    Nevermind, just noticed the total is 10k :).
    – Loc Nguyen
    Commented Jul 17, 2012 at 17:20

3 Answers 3

Reset to default
4

Villain's range is weighted toward Qx given his lack of interest in maximizing fold equity, so you're something like 32% to win and being given 2730:1170 = 30%, slightly correct pot odds to call chip-equity wise.

If you fold, your money equity via ICM is $411.

If you commit, 32% of the time your stack will be 7,130 against 2,870, for a money equity of $585, and 68% of the time your stack will be 3,230 against 3,900 and 2,870, for a money equity of $327.

Your money equity expectation for going with the hand is thus 32% * $585 + 68% * $327 = $410. This is about the same money equity as folding, if our range assumption is accurate.

You really screwed yourself with the bet sizing. If Villain can have a flush draw this is a fold since those composed with Qx tip the money equity enough, and even if he doesn't have a flush draw his queen is a club a third of the time for a redraw on two of your outs.

Improve this answer
2
  • It sounds like you're very slightly in favor of a fold, but consider it a very fine line. I'm slightly in favor of getting it in, but also consider it a very fine line. Either way, I agree that my student screwed up on bet-sizing here. Full pot as a c-bet commits his stack sufficiently to make this an easy call. I assume that's your thought here as well?
    – Jeffrey Blake
    Commented Jul 17, 2012 at 19:47
  • Yeah, any bigger of a bet and we can't fold here.
    – Loc Nguyen
    Commented Jul 17, 2012 at 20:15
1

I realize its the bubble and I think opening the BTN really wide here is fine, but I'm pretty sure this is a fold preflop. As for the flop it's really close but a fold since he might even do this with 5x or mid pairs if he decides not to shove them preflop.

Improve this answer
0

Pre that is a fold in my book. I would maybe get 56s but not 34o. Especially chip leader on the bubble.

Putting BB on a Q. Not a spot they are bluffing. Even if they are on QQ it does not change the situation.

That is push fold as BB is pot committed. Getting 2.33 : 1 to call. If all 8 of the outs are good then getting odds to push. If BB has just one club it is close. If BB has two clubs then a fold. With ICM I say fold.

Improve this answer

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.