In the example, the situation is the following:
Hero (370$): A♥ T♥
Villain (370$): ? ?
Board (380$): 8♥ 3♥ K♣
Villian now goes all-in, and the course deducts, that it is correct to call, based on the 9 outs we have for completing a flush on turn or river. The lecture goes on, calculating, that any bet up to ~400$ would be profitable for us and should be called, based on the assumed 9 outs.
Neither on the slides, nor in the recorded lecture, any comments are given on what cards we put our opponent on. However, I assume villains hand is not that weak, as we need a flush to beat him. So for example, two pairs, or three of a kind (let's say three kings), he might have.
Nevertheless, in such cases, runner runner could also help us. For example, turn and river show both Aces. We would have a higher three of a kind. Or one Ace and one T show up. That would at least beat our opponent, if he has only two pairs.
So my question are:
- A) Can I assume higher odds, than just the ones based on hitting the flush? -> Which then would allow us to call an even heigher bet then the calculated maximum of 400$.
- B1) If so, how do I calculate or incorporate runner runners in a model? Like, how to treat runner runner cards mathematical?
- B2) If this is hard to calculate, is there a rule of thumb, easy to memorize way, for runner runners you can use quickly during a real game?