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Playing 1/3 NL Hold'em at a B&M casino. Apologies if description is a bit light on details; this hand is from a couple weeks ago and details are a bit fuzzy.

Hero table image - hero has been betting aggressively. If hero raises pre-flop (particularly from EP), hero bets on the flop with any equity. However, Hero is folding to large aggression, particularly on the turn and river.

Hero is UTG and gets AKo. Has ~$200. Raises to $12
Folds to Hijack (our villain), who calls. Villain has >$500
Couple more callers afterwards

Flop is A-8-3 (rainbow)
Hero bets $30
Villain raises to $75 (villain made this play against hero once before, which induced hero to fold. villain hasn't played many hands)
Folds around to Hero

Hero thinks and goes all-in
Villain calls

Villain also has AK; result is a split-pot

Question: What's troubling me is whether the all-in here was the right move. I could call the $75 but then I'm pot committed anyway. Further, if I think I have the best hand (which I did), then why call and let villain get to see the turn? On the other hand, if I think I have the best hand, why risk pushing the villain out on the flop with an all-in?

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Pre-flop

Villain called a pretty big raise. JJ+ should have raised. I would put them on two paint, AXs, or mid pocket pair.

Flop

That is priced as a value raise. They could have A8, 88, or A3 and you are beat. More likely they are on a strong ace. If you call you are pot committed. Even if the turn is Q or J you need to call. At this point you might as well jam. If you fold out a weak ace you don't give it a chance to hit. There is enough in the pot to just be happy to take it down.

  • In your opinion, should the villain have called my all-in with AK? Playing 1/2 or 1/3, it seems like all-in's usually signal the player has a very strong hand. Thus, in retrospect, I'm a bit surprised by the villain's call with AK. – Craig Sep 18 '18 at 20:18
  • Yes they should call with AK. – paparazzo Sep 18 '18 at 20:36
  • But why? Yes, they could have A8, 88, or A3. But so could I. Why shouldn't villain be concerned that I held a better hand? Is it simply a question of pot odds? – Craig Sep 18 '18 at 20:43
  • They should be concerned but if they don't call here they will be exploited. – paparazzo Sep 18 '18 at 21:07
  • Im not sure you should be opening UTG A8, A3, or possibly even 33. So villain has many more 2pair combinations than you. Here you have AJ+, which villain's AK is ahead of. – sakon Sep 19 '18 at 2:04
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This is my first time doing hand analysis so forgive me if anything is unclear.

You didn't specify the number of callers so its hard to comment on the bet sizing. I assume everything is normal there.

The issue i have with this hand is that you are repping a relatively small range (AJ+) after raising UTG and c-betting this board into a few callers. Could have AA but unlikely, and I would personally slowplay AA here since everyone is drawing super thin and will be unlikely to call.

When villain re-raises, to me he repping A3 or better. Its hard to come up with bluff ranges for this flop texture, since there's hardly any draws available. He could be bluffing with TT or 99 hoping to get you off a bigger pair (JJ-KK), but i dont think he expects you to fold an Ace here, especially since he may 3-bet AQs+ preflop.

When you shove, its so difficult for the villain to call you with a hand thats behind (maybe only AQ, which likely gets stacked either way). You will fold out his bluffs, plus weaker Aces (A9-AT), possibly AJ. I dont think he will fold A3 here.

That said, you don't have much of a stack behind so the EV difference may not be much. It may come down to a individual read on whether this player will fire again with a bluff on the turn. It would also depend on how the table sees you. If everyone knows you as an ABC TAG, i can see folding here to be an option.

  • I’ve added a blurb about hero table image to the question. As noted, three callers pre-flop but only one caller after my flop bet. – Craig Sep 18 '18 at 13:51
  • Regarding villain raise repping A3 or better, so you’re recommendation is to fold despite having committed ~20% of my stack? – Craig Sep 18 '18 at 13:53
  • If i call i would be quite sick about it. Perhaps its GTO to call and balance your range so you cant be exploited since AK is top of your range, but i expect to be beat most of the time here. AK is the bottom of your opponent's value range. – sakon Sep 19 '18 at 2:01

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