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(13k) utg+1 ....... villain

(9k). Cut off....hero JJ

Blinds 300/600 , $100 buy in . I got in from a satellite that auto entered me.during late reg with around 20bb at 5k

The villain has been playing tight/passive, rarely going past the flop and hasn't raised much . Mainly Calling and has folded to my continuation bet 3times. Called once and folded on my second barrel. The villain open raises to 1200, I raise to 2800. The action folds around and the villain makes the call We go to the flop two handed and it is a good one 3. 8. 6 (The suits don't matter in this one lol) The villain checks , and I shove all in for 6200. .. instant call and he turns pocket sixes for the set And I did not improve

Where did I go wrong? I can not see myself getting away from the over pair with 10bb left behind. I had put him on an AK-A9s type of hand and see that the bottom of the range could be small pairs but with no over card I think it was the right play. Was this just a cooler for me or did I mistep with the all in? Also is there a percentage known of how often a low pair will flop a set against an overpair?

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  • Flopping a set happens around 10% of the time.
    – Raymond
    Oct 5, 2019 at 8:53

2 Answers 2

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There is not much you can do here. JJ is good here almost all of the time and your stack size is not very big. Only thing that I would consider changing is just jamming it all in preflop, since you only have 15BB.

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    Since JJ is not a great all-in , and I wasn't willing to coinflip. I don't know that I would make the same play in a smaller stake. Btw this is ACR and so many A-x hands get shoved :at least in my usual <$20 stake
    – Jill Hemphill
    Oct 4, 2019 at 13:04
  • @JillHemphill did you open raise or did the villain open raise? in the question it says that the villain open raised and you 3-bet to 2800. if you are 3-betting here i would jam 15BB, if AQ or AK calls you then it is a flip but you are ahead of AJ or lower. There isn't much of a plan when you 3-bet to 2800, if the board comes with a queen or higher and your opponent jams into you it is a tough spot and a lot of the times you have to find a fold. better in my opinion to 3-bet jam
    – Clarko
    Oct 4, 2019 at 23:26
  • I definitely see that I should have 3-bet all in preflop. I'm pretty sure I would have made that decision pretty easily at my usual setting. Ive never played many satellites and definitely did not expect to be entered into this tourney immediately once the satellite had finished. The thought of 200:1 on my money was blocking my instincts it seems. When making the preflop decision I planned to let the Jack's go if re-raised preflop or if a Q+ hit the flop. Essentially just trying to stick around to the payout. Also probably giving my opponents too much respect just because it was higher stake
    – Jill Hemphill
    Oct 5, 2019 at 5:51
  • I was not interested in a coinflip for all my chips. And I'm certain that I usually would be in the usual $20 games.
    – Jill Hemphill
    Oct 5, 2019 at 5:53
  • Regardless of the preflop blunder, was there any merit to raise-folding on that flop? Is what I am truly curious about..
    – Jill Hemphill
    Oct 5, 2019 at 5:55
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You did nothing wrong. Why do you assume you did? Sometimes we just get into a cooler.

As for your title question, a pocket pair flops a set roughly once every 8 times. The amount of times your pocket pair gets outflopped by a set depends of course of how many pairs are in the villain's range compared to other hands

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  • I felt like it was the correct play as well, I guess I am curious about if he led on the turn (that was not a Q+) is there any chance that folding was an option
    – Jill Hemphill
    Oct 4, 2019 at 12:59
  • I don't really think so. By folding those spots, you'd be exposing yourself too much to bluffs
    – David
    Oct 7, 2019 at 9:12

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