Given the entrants and the speed (e.g. 45 Players Turbo), is there any formula out there to estimate a tournament duration?

Even better, any formula to estimate times for each finish position?

As an alternative, is there a time-detailed dataset somewhere with tons of tournaments?

UPDATE: Any suggestion where should I ask this question all around the internets?

1 Answer 1


The method I use to estimate tournament duration is:

  1. Calculate total chips in play
  2. Divide by two to get average stack heads up
  3. Estimate likely stack size in BBs at heads up (so for turbos likely to be 10-20BBs, regular tournys 20BBs+)
  4. Work out which blind level in the tournament structure corresponds to the numbers in 2 and 3 Which gives us: likely tounament duration = blind level from 4 * length of levels + any breaks

You can use a similar method to estimate times for other positions by dividing by a different number in 2 (I often /9 to estimate when we're likely to reach the final table, for example)

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