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Given 50 events, and $2000/wk expenses, and typical B&M or WSOP payouts, and you're better than 95% of the field in a $10k event (wow! you're pretty good, probably should go pro!). What is your expected earn, per event and per year?

[Sorry to crush your dreams guys]

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  • i wont answer just because I am not giving you a mathematical answer, but there are a lot of variables that can effect the expected earning of a player like this. One first place win could mean that you a profiting for the entire year, but min cashing every time could mean that you are barely making a profit. A lot of it has to do with variance (especially over the course of 50 events) so finding the expected earnings per tournament or per year would not give you very useful information.
    – Clarko
    Jan 31 '20 at 5:09
  • You really don't have to tell us that you're not going to answer every question on SE. :)
    – John Dee
    Jan 31 '20 at 21:22
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OK, so I'm going to reference Poker Shares for this question. They depend on being able to accurately answer this question to make money.

They don't have any $10k events listed at the moment (but keep a look out for next time they do!). They have a €25k high roller, and the best players in that are reckoned to have a 29% ROI. Meanwhile Daniel Negreanu reckons he has a 280%-300% ROI for small buy-in events (and a 450% ROI in the main event!).

So $10ks? I've seen some tough $10k fields, where I would expect the best ROI to be no more than ~20%. Meanwhile, there's the main event. So I don't have a good feel for a "typical" $10k ROI. Finger in the air guess, I'd say if the best players are managing 29% ROI in high-rollers, 50%-60% should be achievable for the same players in $10ks on average.

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  • this gave me a chuckle. If the best reported ROIs are X, then the expected ROI must be considerably LOWER, not higher. The biggest winners in poker are maniacs who gamble with abandon. They go broke eventually, but during the ride, they make money. Go all in with a gut shot, hit it, and your ROI goes through the roof! One of the ways I explain this to poker players is that from the SUCKER's point of view, poker has to play somewhat in the range of other games of chance. It SOMETHING like playing blackjack or roulette to the sucker.
    – John Dee
    Jan 31 '20 at 21:14
  • In those games, the loss rate is something like 1-10%. That's the TOTAL loss, which in poker would be the wins of the +EV players, plus the house fees, which are already at around 3%. From the average - losing - gambler, the game plays somewhere in the -15% range. You can't even make it lower! If you just gamble like a maniac in poker, you sometimes win big and never suffer an AVERAGE -60% roi.
    – John Dee
    Jan 31 '20 at 21:16

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