NL200: Am I A Super-Nit For Considering Folding The Turn With TPGK?

Question

First off, I flatted the CO opn as I'd just 3B that player very recently. I didn't want to get 4B off what was likely the best hand, and IP, it plays well enough postflop to be +EV IMO. Not certain how to proceed as I feel as if i'm in an awkward situation even if the River improves my hand. What would you do?

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NL200 FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Hero (BTN): 268.34 BB
SB: 89.88 BB (VP: 22/PF: 17/AF: 1). Pretty much unknown.
BB: 105.44 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 101.5 BB Only 15 hands, unknown

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:diamonds: J:spades:
fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 7:spades: 6:hearts: 4:hearts:
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 7.64 BB, SB calls 7.64 BB, fold

Turn: (25.28 BB, 2 players) A:clubs:
SB checks, Hero bets 17 BB, SB raises to 34 BB, Hero...?

Answer 1

There're only two options here, shove or fold so I don't think you're a nit by stopping to think.

On the turn he's making a min raise and nearly committing himself to the pot (he has 45BB left with a 60BB pot) which looks to me pretty strong and definitively hints at a hand there, given the way it's being played, no matter what card comes on the river if you call you'll face all-in in the final street so you might as well take the decision now. He also called from the worst possible position, the SB with the BB still to act, I'm putting him on Ax or total bluff

In this spot I think you have to consider what your opponent thinks you have... you called as the button, tried to steal on the flop and double barreled on the turn, definitively looks like a bluff to me so probably he's putting you on a weak hand, given how deep you are and the good odds that you have of having the best hand, I would shove.

Edit:

Well, my line of thinking here is:

• You didn't 3bet pre-flop so without reads I'm putting you on a not so strong ace, maybe A9 or KQs or similar.
• The flop is not really telling me much, it cheks to you and you C bet, I'm still putting you on that range.
• The turn is an A, now... If I have a draw or air I can check raise and throw you off your weak hands with a check raise because no matter what you have you're gonna double barrel from the button (would you have checked if a T comes in the turn?)
• I check raise (min raise) and I will
  • Throw you of the hand if you have air
  • Probably throw you out if you have a weak ace

Answer 2

He obviously has some sort of hand as he's called every street. When the Ace comes he check raises, which is normally a sign of strength, or it could be him trying to rep that he has an Ace to scare you off the pot. At this point there are only 3 hands beating you in my opinion. AA, AK and AQ. He could also have the ace of hearts and another random heart. I think I would call and shove as long as there is no heart on the river, Queen or King may also scare me off as he may well hit 2 pair.

That being said you have him covered by quite some way, so maybe a shove over the top. He is only going to call with a hand at that point and the chances are its a coin flip.

Answer 3

Discounting that he's making a move, he hit the ace. The question is, is his ace better than yours?

He could reasonably have played this way with: A4s, A5s, A6s, A7s, A8s, A9s, ATs, AJo/AJs, AQo/AQs, AKo/AKs. Since offsuit hands are more likely than suited hands and he's likely to have a hand toward the top of his range, let's give a little more weight to AJ/AQ/AK.

Now, of these hands, you beat A5s, A8s, A9s, and ATs (4 hands); you lose to A4s, A6s, A7s, and all the AJ/AQ/AK hands that we said were more likely (6+ hands). Of the hands you beat, most have reasonable outs to draw at a better hand than yours.

You're behind. Fold.

Answer 4

For me i don't think he would call with Ax against 2 players. What i would more be afraid of is any kind of low pair or suited connectors. Since he is sure to see a flop if he calls for 2.5 BB to see a flop and go in with 76 or 53s / 85s, checking first and calling your raise on the flop would make sense since he knows that most likely you failed the flop and probably wants the other guy to also pay and the check raise on the turn means he's kinda scared of a possible flush draw or a split from a straight. Seeing an ace on the turn he knows you are likely to have hit it with your AQ+ and that you might call his check raise.

In this situation it's either fold or hero push move. The only hands he can have is either you are crushed or he's in a total bluff.

Answer 5

Pre
Flatting is fine
SB should raise with TT+ and AKs

Flop
Pretty standard to take a stab at the pot
When villain calls they have

• paired the board
• hit a set
• strong draw
• AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, AKo

Turn
Villain is pot committed so that is a 77 bet
You are fold / shove getting 2:1
That card did not help any draws
You only have 3 out to improve (if they have and ace)
When villain raises they have

• 2 pair

• set

• AKo, AQ maybe AT

• a bluff

I don't see that you are ahead 1/3 of the times.
But you do have a bluff catcher.