Recently I had a situation where I made a flush on the turn but my opponent made a full house on the river. The board was J5566 so it wasn't too difficult for anyone to make a full house in this case (just need to be holding a 5 or a 6). He bet half pot on the river and I raised him 3x. He snap called. In hindsight, maybe I should have just called instead of raised in this situation.

My question is how likely is a full house when the board pairs twice with low numbers like this? Would you consider folding a flush to a half pot bet?

My rationale for folding: at low stakes like 1/2, opponents are rarely bluffing. The only hands we beat are two pair with Jx and it's unlikely he's representing something that weak.

My rationale for calling or raising: a typical 1/2 player would bet much larger than half pot if they made a boat. It's likely he just has Jx and will fold to a raise.

Generally speaking, I struggle in these situations where I am supposed to let go of a strong holding against a stronger one. Also, I don't have a useful thought process for navigating paired boards other than "pot control".

  • 1
    What was the preflop action? What are the effective stack sizes? What is your history with this villain? Feb 19, 2021 at 2:12
  • Also, what is villain's position? What is your position? And who was the preflop raiser and from what position? For example, if villain raised preflop from early position, he's unlikely to have a 5 or 6. But if he defended the big blind, he has all the 5's and 6's. It's not a good idea to think in chances, but in ranges.
    – Jasper
    Sep 7, 2021 at 11:51


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