Good fold or losing play? AK on AK988

Question

Live 2/5 NLH, 8 handed.

Splashy and trappy UTG (900) limps. Hero (4000) in UTG+1 is dealt AhKd and raises to 30. ATC HJ (3300) calls 30, tight passive SB (1600) calls 30, BB folds, UTG calls 30.

Flop (125): Ac Kh 9d
Checks to Hero who bets 50. HJ folds, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn (275): 8d
Checks to Hero who bets 140. SB calls, UTG calls.

River (695): 8s
SB checks, UTG all in for 680. Hero tank folds. SB calls. UTG shows down 9h8h. SB allegedly mucks AsQs.

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I folded here because:

1. My particular hand is actually perhaps towards the bottom of my range for hands that get to this spot;
2. SB was still behind to act so my play should be either to jam or fold; and
3. I could not find very many combinations of bluffs that UTG could be jamming with.

Did I make the right fold, or does folding here actually lose me money in the long term?

Answer 1

Wow, that was a great to superstar fold. As it turns out you made the right play. When I am playing well I would have a hard time convincing myself to believe what I see and make that fold, when I am off my game, I would almost always make that call.

It is hard to describe all the nuances of a hand and a player. I am speculating that a lot more, like the tells, the texture of the game, the mode of your opponents etc, went into your decision. Most people while they would consider making the call with bottom pair and a backdoor draw, do not really consider that other players often do. You did, and that was great work. While it would be easy to say, with no other data your hand is almost an auto call, your play is at a level with this hand, that goes beyond your question about folding two top pair.

I think if you would post an answer to your question here, I for one am sure I would learn more from your answer then you would from mine.

Answer 2

There aren't many hands your opponent would bluff on that spot except perhaps for some missed straight draw and what candidates for a value-bet could you possibly be beating? Not many either! Your opponent is betting almost a full pot and SB can still call or even shove behind you. I'd say folding is the only reasonable play here