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Look at this spot of the Big Game, season 2, episode 17.
Elky holds K♠️ J♠️ and Minieri holds A♦️K♣️. On the flop of 6♣️ 3♠️ 2♠️ the winning percentage of 55% for Elky and 45% for Minieri is shown. I wonder if these numbers can be correct. There are 9 outs for Elky, A♠️ Q♠️ T♠️ 9♠️ 8♠️ 7♠️ 6♠️ 5♠️ 4♠️, and three more J♥️ J♦️ J♣️ where Minieri has a redraw. So I feel the winning percentage for Elky should be more like 45%.
While typing the question I think I found the answer on my own. Watching the preceding action reveals that the other players have folded the cards K♥️ Q♦️ T♦️ 9♦️ 6♦️ T♣️ 8♣️ 4♣️, not containing any out of Elky. That improves his chances and 55% might make sense then.
Azimut's speculation is correct. For a bit more detail:
There are 15 cards from the hole cards and flop that are unavailable, leaving 37 possible remaining cards for 666 possible turn/river combinations.
For the most part Minieri wins if neither card is a jack or a spade. Such cards number 25 remaining. 25 choose 2 yields 300 matching combinations.
The only complications here are that 6 of those 300 combinations are a split pot (where a non-spade 4/5 hits and both players have the board straight). And Minieri has an additional 6 winning combinations for him when a non-spade A hits with a J.
| Winner | combinations | percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Elky | 360 | 54% |
| Minieri | 300 | 45% |
| Split | 6 | 1% |
