What are the odds of somebody getting 4 of a kind on the river to beat your already achieved full house.
Also if it can be calculated, what would the odds be for losing a winning hand on the river
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A one-outer is 1/44 probability, or 43 to 1 odds, 2.27%.– Lee Daniel CrockerSep 17, 2021 at 23:26
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2 Answers
The odds of drawing the card that you need to turn a three of kind into quads are 2.1 percent.
This article has a great explanation and more. https://www.oddsshark.com/poker/four-kind-odds
From the site:
2%: Percent chance to hit quads by the river with a pocket pair (1 in 122)
0.2%: Percent chance to hit quads on the flop with a pocket pair (1 in 407)
0.001%: Percent chance to flop quads without a pocket pair (1 in 1000)
0.0001%: Percent chance that quads get beaten (1 in 100,000)
Assuming quads is the only hand that beats you, there's only 1 card on the deck that makes you lose, while the remaining 43 make you win.
Since the river is just one card, the chance of your hand getting beaten is 1/44, or about 2.2%. You win the remaining 43/44 (about 97.8% of the time)
