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Are any of the popular online poker websites rigged for big hands and more table action than would actually happen with true random dealing?

I've played over 200,000 hands of NL Hold 'Em at a popular website but yesterday I saw something really, really bizarre that makes me question whether their software deals cards fairly and randomly or is "tweaked" to generate action and big hands. Seated at 9 player tables, I observed myself and others hit 4 of a kind (or "quads") six different times in the course of 430 hands! According to various websites, the probability of any player hitting quads is one in 4000-7000 hands assuming the max case that nobody ever folds and everybody sees the river. The range comes from checking several different sources, although I know there can only actually be one statistically correct answer. During my actual play, many players folded their hands well before the river so the chances of hitting quads would be even less. But let's assume the chances are on the more likely side of one in 4000 hands, then wouldn't the chances of 6 times in 4000 hands be .00025 raised to the power 6? or a decimal point followed by 30 zeros? Those are infinitesimal odds and I saw this not in 4000 hands but in just 430 hands.

So I question whether the software is really dealing cards randomly or is rigged to generate big hands, with big bets, so the company can take its cut of larger pots. Does this make any sense to poker experts?

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  • , I observed myself and others hit 4 of a kind (or "quads") six different times in the course of 430 hands! is not enough data to come to any but the most speculative of conclusions. onewould really need access to allthe data to even begin here
    – Jon
    Jan 11 at 21:47

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Thinking the software is rigged is an example of the gambler's fallacy. It is possible for lots of rare events to happen in short succession, just as it is possible to not see quads for a long time. Humans are good at recognising patterns so remember similar events easier than when they don't happen. I.e., you don't keep track of the time when you didn't see quads for a very long period. That's not to say software can't be rigged, and that has happened in years gone by. However, if you play on a regulated site the software is going to be OK. In the UK operators must audit their software once a year and show it to the licensing authority (the Gambling Commission in the UK).

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The probability to have a four of a kind of a specific figure on seven card is 1/7735, so as there is 13 figure, it's 13/7735 = 1/595 to see one on a round.

It's 1/14243 to see it at least 6 times in 400 hands.

As you play 200 000 hands, you have 500 samples, so it's 1/29 to see at least one time 6 four of a kind in 400 hands on 500 sessions.

1/30, it's unlickly but not so much as you play a lot of hands.

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