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All in preflop with pocket aces or kings and I will get 1 caller and they will either flop trips which hold up or I flop a set but it be same suit and they make flush on river or i make set on flop but will come with 2 connectors and they make str8 on river. Both scenarios opponent only needing 1 hole card to beat me. I feel like they are astronomical but I don't know how to figure it out for sure

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  • 22 times in a row would be like extremely unlikely and if it happened well I guess take a break from playing as it's just not your time to win obviously from the poker gods. In seriousness though, pretty astronomically. Worst case percentages for aces is to be up against suited connects, which have a 24% of cracking aces. Pocket pairs will beat aces 18% of the time. Broadway cards will crack aces about 18% of the time. Random suited cards, not connected will win 18% of the time. AK will only win about 8% of the time...So yeah pretty nasty luck you had.
    – Grinch91
    Jun 20, 2022 at 9:29
  • I'm pretty sure that hand with the greatest equity against AA is 76s not suited with the AA, at about 22.6%. Jun 20, 2022 at 10:18
  • Was just roughly rounding, from what I remembered off the top of my head. I'd very well believe you that it's 22.6%. Either way 24% vs 22.6% in the context of the question 22 times losing in a row is not going to change the fact that it's fairly unbelievable.
    – Grinch91
    Jun 20, 2022 at 14:55
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    seriously you ran bad, do not think about it too much, it is a deviation and not the norm, focusing to much on it will turn you perspective askew
    – Jon
    Jun 20, 2022 at 16:13
  • Very much agree with @Jon here. Just on the unlucky side this time. Hopefully next time you get aces or kings 22 times it'll be the other way for you :)
    – Grinch91
    Jun 21, 2022 at 9:19

1 Answer 1

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I don't do math well enough to answer this question. but I think I can give you some thoughts with an answer. Losing that many times is statistically highly unlikely. How ever my real problem personally when running that badly, is the way it effects the head, it is time to take a break clear the head, and then get back in there. The temptation is to keep running the hands thorough your head. This will only serve to send your thinking a little sideways in the wrong direction. Losing is what it is, and when it is this bad one start to look for reasons when there are no good ones. Last time I went all in with aces, was against the same donkey twice, both times I was second raiser, both times the opponent made horrible calls, 200 preflop with 7-2, and about the same with 9-7. He won with deuces full the first time, a straight the second time. You just have to do what you need to do and thank god there is a guy whom will call 200 cold preflop with anything, and hope you catch them. Before your trip to the gun store. Your exact number here will not help you do anything to get out of the rut. Work on staying off tilt. That is the real disaster waiting to implode your bankroll.

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