This is for all the math nerds out there.

I was offered an "EVEN MONEY" prop bet on a live cash game session I played a few days ago.

The bet was as follows:

"Villain selects 3 ranks of cards, say (K,Q,J). If the flop contains any of these, he wins, else I win."

I accepted the bet in the spur of the moment, but I was always skeptical if the odds are actually 50-50.

I really want to know (with proof if possible), what are the odds and how bad was my decision?

Thanks in advance.


My solution:

Since any one of the 12 cards in the deck hitting the flop would in his victory, I calculated my odds as:

(40 / 52) * (39 / 51) * (38 / 50)
= 44.7%

So, is this correct? Are the odds 55.3 : 44.7 in villain's favour?

  • I agree with your calculation.
    – Boba Fit
    Jan 16 at 15:26


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