This is for all the math nerds out there.
I was offered an "EVEN MONEY" prop bet on a live cash game session I played a few days ago.
The bet was as follows:
"Villain selects 3 ranks of cards, say (K,Q,J). If the flop contains any of these, he wins, else I win."
I accepted the bet in the spur of the moment, but I was always skeptical if the odds are actually 50-50.
I really want to know (with proof if possible), what are the odds and how bad was my decision?
Thanks in advance.
Since any one of the 12 cards in the deck hitting the flop would in his victory, I calculated my odds as:
(40 / 52) * (39 / 51) * (38 / 50) = 44.7%
So, is this correct? Are the odds 55.3 : 44.7 in villain's favour?