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6-max Cash game, 100BB deep

Hero holds A♥3♥

Goes 5-way to the flop, single raised for 3BB

FLOP: 6♣8♥T♥

SB bet 10 BB

BB folds

UTG raises 20BB

HJ folds

CO (Hero) calls

SB all in for 100BB

UTG all in for 100BB

Should Hero call?

I put them on a set and top pair top kicker. The odds of hitting the nut flush are 35% for putting 80BB more in a 215BB pot. Hero calls, stars shows Hero has 27.4% equity so it was a -EV call. Where did I calculate my equity wrong? Is it due to the possibility of quads and full houses or because someone maybe already folded heart cards?

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  • I usaully ask myself in an all in drawing situation, is the rent paid?
    – Jon
    Commented Feb 6, 2023 at 5:47
  • 1
    27.4% implies 7 outs. 13 cards of a suit, we know 4 of course, leaving 9. A 6h is no good if they have a set as they will have quads or a house, bring us down to 8. My assumption here for the drop to 7 outs is someone else had a heart and folded.
    – Grinch91
    Commented Feb 9, 2023 at 11:50
  • It's also possible that one of your two opponents holds a heart - say, KhKd - whilst the other has a set (meaning 6h is no good for you). In this scenario, it wouldn't be necessary for the equities to take into account cards already mucked by other players (which might or might not be the case depending on the latest site configuration or possibly your user settings). Alternatively, one opponent could have (say) KhQh and the other nothing at all, again leaving you seven 'outs'. If neither opponent shows a heart in this scenario then the displayed equities must be considering mucked cards.
    – Neil T
    Commented Apr 15, 2023 at 9:26

1 Answer 1

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The reason your equity decreases is because some of your outs are dead. For example, if you're up against a set, you will lose equity because any heart that pairs the board will make a full house for your opponent, and if you make a flush on the turn you can still get outdrawn on the river. In the scenario where all your outs are live (you're up against top pair/ straight), you will have 36% equity.

You had to call 80BB to win a pot of 315BB. You need 25.4% (80/315) equity to break even. You had 27.4% equity, so your call is +EV.

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