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Blinds are 0.5-1. Preflop, hero is on the button with T♠8♠, hero raises to 2.50 dollars, BB calls.

Flop: 7♠6♦️4♦️. BB checks hero bets 6 dollars, BB calls.

Turn: J♣️. Hero bets 20 dollars. BB calls.

River 2♠. BB checks

What should hero do?

This is a quiz from upswing poker. The solution is that I should bet and not check. But it doesn't make sense to me. He called twice which means he has a strong hand, or a strong draw but I eliminated many if his draw so why is it correct to bet here?

2 Answers 2

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You have many blockers to strong hands, you can't win by checking, flushes missed, the person calling three times and checking on the river doesn't represent strong holdings, and things like calling with second or third pair is hard after three bets.

Let's thing about this hands from a range perspective. The BB can have a huge defend range, but hands they would raise with haven't done so yet. I think we can discount a lot of strong holdings like pocket pairs above 66s, things like AJs,ATo,KJs,KQo,etc. Of course they can have them everynow and then but they should be raising with them up until this point. Again I know you're looking at Upswing and I've linked an article below that explains this with the ranges.

Essentially the opponents range can't really be good as they've not shown any indication of it being strong so far. Yes they've called every bet so far, but they've also checked the river. You cannot win by checking back. The way the BB has played this hand really indicates their range is something like a missed flush, straight draw or a pair of sixes or maybe a seven. Betting puts pressure and tells a convincing story. Think about how many times you've seen people triple barrel bluff, it's rare and you put an immense amount of pressure on very weak holdings. There are just better spots for this person to play so they should just fold. Of course this depends on the player of course.

Article on this

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  • But hes out of postion and so it makes sense that after me betting two streets he would check in the river to induce a bluff or bet with worse hands Sep 1, 2023 at 18:57
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    Again, you can't win the hand any other way. The hands he has that he'll check raise you with here are not that common the way the hand has been played. If someone is going to check 3 streets with very strong hands on this board they are missing value. You have no showdown equity in the situation. If you want to win you have to bet. Calling twice absolutely does not mean they have to have a strong hand.
    – Grinch91
    Sep 4, 2023 at 14:32
  • I agree with grinch. You have to risk a bluff if you want to win the pot. And not a minbet either - has to be somewhat painful, so that even a 7x or even weaker Jx hands get a reason to throw it away. For all you know they are folding A♦K♦ and have very little calling equity in the pot after the river gave them nothing.
    – RobW
    Sep 6, 2023 at 23:58
  • So you are saying that just because i have 10-8 of spades doesnt mean i remove most of his folding combos? For example he could have 10-8 himself which is a folding combo, 10 9 offsuit as well. Which is alot of folding combos, that i just removed or reduced Sep 9, 2023 at 12:01
  • To be fair you could just also give up and check. It's simple though, if you want to win, the way this hand has played, the board texture and your own blockers to certain hands, you need to bet.
    – Grinch91
    Sep 12, 2023 at 9:47
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A strong hand would have likely raised at least once. If he is slow playing a big hand, then he wouldn't be extracting much value when you lose your bet on the river to a call or re-raise, which is good for you. By betting on the river here, you are making money off of his fold equity because he is much more likely to be calling you down with a middle pair. In low stakes, you will get so many folds just by putting a blocking bet of 50-75% pot here - a very low risk move.

The reason you don't want to check here is because you have already bet two streets chasing the gut shot, and V has not shown any strength. Obviously you should adjust if, for example, you have a very loose aggressive table image because then V could be trying to trap you.

Also there is no need to balance your river check range, so checking does not accomplish anything other than you giving up.

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