# Practical odds of some hand hitting flush in hands played to showdown

Given the strong lean of hole cards played to the flop towards suited cards, the actual percentage of hold 'em hands that get to the river that end up hitting a flush is surely higher than the theoretical odds. Has anyone collected data sets of played hands and analyzed how often some hand actually hits a flush? It seems possible with so many players folding unsuited cards pre-flop that the percentage of hands ending with flushes may be higher than the percentage with straights.

• If that was true a straight would be considered a strong hand than a flush. There are many more combinations of cards that can deliver a straight, vs the set 13 cards that can deliver a flush. Unless you know 100% the cards your opponent folded it's irrelevant, when working out the probabilities we can only disregard cards we know and cannot assume cards we think may be gone are in fact gone.
– Grinch91
Feb 19 at 11:14
• A good example of this is streams using RFID Cards, they know the order of the cards in the deck, and also know the cards that are folded. These situations could 100% give practical odds, because they don't have to assume cards are or are not available, they know what players have folded.
– Grinch91
Feb 19 at 11:15
• Thanks Grinch, but I don't think it necessarily follow s that "If that was true a straight would be considered a strong[er] hand than a flush." The strength of the hands was based on the rarity of hands in random distributions. Imagine for some crazy reason that most of the poker strategy sites and coaches started telling players to fold pre-flop with suited connectors but to play hands with low pairs (2s, 3s, 4s, etc.) If most players started playing that way then the percentage of hands that actually go to the river that end in a flush would go way down and the percentage of hands ending wit Feb 19 at 18:28
• hands ending with someone holding a full house would go up. Perhaps flushes would then be more rare than full houses. Not sure if I used the right term but that's what I meant by "practical odds": the odds under the real-world conditions of what hands get played, not the theoretical odds calculated based on an assumption of random distribution of all unseen cards...............This is me continuing the above comment as converting incorrect answer back to a comment.
– Grinch91
Feb 22 at 10:47
• What you said @Robbie595 is not true. I can understand where you're coming from, but poker hand strength rankings are based off absolute odds of occurring based on the combination’s possible in a deck of cards. It's an absolute number based on total combination, regardless of what people actually play, it does not change how many combinations of a straight or flushes are possible. It has nothing to do with how people play. Number of straights possible in a standard 52 card deck would be 10,200, ((10*4^5 - 10*4)), whereas a flushes possible are 5,108, (((13 C 5) (4 C 1) - (10 C 1) (4 C 1)))
– Grinch91
Feb 22 at 10:56