NL100: Deep Stack Shoves On River. Do You Call?

Question

Deep stacked with the MP. Our hand is the 2nd nuts. Obviously, I have no reads so the question is do you think this is ever anything that I can beat? Is it worth the money to call?

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$1.00 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

Hero (BTN): 298.9 bb (VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3Bet Preflop: 7)
SB: 117.9 bb (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 16.92, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 134)
BB: 101.5 bb (VPIP: 55.56, PFR: 55.56, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 9)
UTG: 62.3 bb (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
MP: 279.8 bb (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
CO: 116.7 bb (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 bb) Hero has 6:diamonds: 5:diamonds:
fold, MP calls 1 bb, fold, Hero raises to 5 bb, SB raises to 15 bb, fold, MP calls 14 bb, Hero calls 10 bb

Flop : (46 bb, 3 players) 8:hearts: 3:spades: 7:diamonds:
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

Turn : (46 bb, 3 players) J:diamonds:
SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

River : (46 bb, 3 players) 4:clubs:
SB checks, MP bets 10 bb, Hero raises to 60 bb, fold, MP raises to 264.8 bb and is all-in, Hero ???

Answer 1

You have the 2nd nuts. His raise isn't a significant overbet. The straight is well-disguised. He didn't bet the turn, which takes T9 out of his range a huge percentage of the time. Easy call.

Answer 2

I put the opponent in some hands like medium suited connector, high one gap suited connector, medium-small pair. I assume the range of the opponent is

77-22,KJs-KTs,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,QJo,JTo

Then you have to call 204 to win 370, this means that you must have at least 36% of equity. Your opponent will have

-nut straight 8.6% of times

-three of kind 11.1% of times

-two pair 2.5% of times

Against his nut range (straight + three of kind + two pair) you have 69% of equity. Against his nut straight range you have 22% of equity. Saying that, the last thing I will do if I have the 1-st nut is to scare my opponent and I would induce an all-in from my opponent. So this strong raise may means uncertainty about his hand. I think is a simple call.

Update: I take a look at what is saying game theory (exposed in the mathematics of poker). From the game theory point of view you have to call with the top 1/(1+a) % of hands that beat a bluff in order to make his value-bet/bluff EV=0, where 'a' is the ratio of bet/pot. In this case a=2.44 because his bet=264 and pot=106. This means that you have to call with top 29% that beat a bluff of your opponent. Your opponent has 88 starting hands and 25 of that are nuts. So in order to make his bet/bluff indifferent to you fold/call you have to call with the top 0.29% of 25 hands. In this case you have to call with T9s, 65s.

Answer 3

Pre-flop

I would prefer a call. This is a hand that will hold up multi-way or just miss.

Flop

You have enough outs (8) I think you should take a stab at the pot and to build the pot if you hit. Like 1/2 the pot.

Turn

If he had 9T he should have bet to build up a pot and protect from a flush draw.

You have 15 outs. Why are you not betting to take it down or build it up if you hit.

River

He could be putting you on a bluff and just trying to steal it back.

If that is a bluff 1/3 of the time you are getting the right odds to call.

No way I put him on 89 2/3 of the time here. Easy call.