On average, how often would a pair of aces win a hand?
I dealt at a fairly large hold-em tournament last weekend, and 4 of 5 times AA was shown the hand lost. The one time it won it was because a 3rd A came up on the river to beat 2 pairs.
Poker Stack Exchange is a question and answer site for serious players and enthusiasts of poker. It only takes a minute to sign up.Sign up to join this community
Against a full table of random hands, AA will win under 30% of the time.
Against any individual random hand, AA will win 85% of the time.
Presumably, your tournament featured full tables. That means that if you play the hand in a way that keeps too many opponents in the hand, you are going to lose very frequently. In the long run, it will be slightly less often than you experienced, but not by much.
This is part of the reasoning behind the advice to play AA aggressively in order to narrow the field.
AA is going to lose a high percentage of the time that it is shown down after the river card has been dealt. This is because the person playing AA is expecting it to win unimproved, meanwhile the opponent has some other hand that has been willing to bet and/or call all the way. The opponent can most likely beat a single pair.
I suspect AA did better as a hand in your tournament than you think. It just won a bunch of small pots that did not make it to the showdown.
Here is a great tool for calculating odds/chances for specific hands.www.propokertools.com.
The link sends you directly to a simulation of AA vs all types of hands.