1/2 NL Decision

Question

1/2 NL

Hero has been sitting with Villain for a little while. His preflop numbers seem pretty tight. He's limped here or there and only seen him play a small handful of raised pots in a couple hours. There hasn't been a ton of action overall.

Hero has KQ in middle position. UTG limps, a couple fold to Hero, he raises to $10. Villain (Button) Calls, UTG Calls.

Flop Q-10-4 Rainbow. I bet $15. Villain raises to $30. UTG folds. I call.

Turn 8. I check. Villain bets $35. I call. River 7. I check. Villain shoves $125 All-In.

Hover over the box below to see what happened:

I tanked for 45-60 seconds. I went through a lot of the thinking you guys did and came to a similar conclusion. I figured I was whipped and I asked if he'd show if I folded. He said yes, so I chucked it. He flips up A-9 suited. Ugh. He seemed like a solid player. Played another 2-3 hours with him. Didn't see him get out of line at all after that.

Where did I screw up and what would you have done on the River ?

Answer 1

With the Villain playing fairly tight and limping frequently, I would suspect that he has been looking to set mine. He might be willing to call 5BB with any pocket pair (and a few other hands) since he's on the button, but from your description of his play I would say he most likely has a medium to high pocket pair 77+.

His reraise on the flop makes me think that he doesn't just have an overpair. I don't think he would want to get his entire stack in with that, so it's either a bluff or a set. Since he has been playing pretty tight, I would lean towards set unless you've already seen him re-raise a high percentage of pots he is involved in postflop. You have a Q, so it's more likely he has pocket Tens than pocket Qs.

I think calling his reraise on the flop was the wrong move. He is either making that bet with a hand that is better that yours, or with a bluff (possibly a semi-bluff with AK or AJ). If it's the former, folding is the best choice since there is very little your hand can do to improve. If it's the latter, you should reraise to prevent him from improving for free. The reraise would have to be large enough to get him to fold ($75 would probably be about right), so you'd be looking at building a pretty big pot if he calls. I would want to be very sure he is bluffing before doing that. So, in this case I would fold and wait for a better spot.

His turn bet seems to be designed to be cheap enough for you to call, but large enough to build the pot up to the point where he can shove on the river as a fairly standard bet. It looks like he wants you to call. Unless he is playing tricky here, you should fold.

It looks like he's been planning to get all his chips in from the flop, so I think he has a made hand. I would fold on the river if I found myself in that situation.

Answer 2

I agree with Paulpro, the only thing I'll add is that I think he could also have AQ until the river shove. From the description, he may try to get value on 2 streets, but it is rare to have a 1/2 player shove with just TPTK on the river. He has a minimum of 2 pair. QT is a definite possibility here, too as I think he would be more likely to wait until the turn and get in a check-raise with a set (just how I see most 1/2 players play a set, especially in position).