Should I call 3 bet when having two pair?

Question

I have recently played following hand:

iPoker - £0.02 NL - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: 132 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 16.95, 3Bet Preflop: 7.81, Hands: 358)

Hero (SB): 109.5 BB

BB: 129 BB (VPIP: 48.28, PFR: 17.24, 3Bet Preflop: 21.05, Hands: 58)

UTG: 48.5 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 15.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)

MP: 89 BB (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 10.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 75)

CO: 94 BB (VPIP: 47.06, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K⋄ 6♣

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 3♠ 9♥ K♠

Hero bets 4.5 BB, BB raises to 11 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB

Turn: (28 BB, 2 players) 6♠

Hero checks, BB bets 15 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, BB raises to 110 BB, Hero calls 65.5 BB

River: (219 BB, 2 players) T⋄

Showdown Spoiler

- Hero mucks K[diamond] 6[clubs] (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes) (Pre 30%, Flop 2%, Turn 5%).
- BB shows K[clubs] 9[clubs] (Two Pair, Kings and Nines) (Pre 70%, Flop 98%, Turn 95%).
- BB wins 219 BB. - I lost this hand but it happens even if it's played correctly?!

My concern here is that I should not call 3-bet on turn as my opponent, if not bluffing, usually will beat me by having three of kind or higher pair. Am I correct?

Also I am not sure if my betting size was correct here? Please let me know how should I play this hand.

Answer 1

One of the troubles with this hand is you can't narrow his range pre-flop. He's seeing a lot of flops anyway and since he's defending his blind his range will likely be even higher than normal. Pre-flop he can have almost any hand.

FLOP He raises your strong looking 3/4 pot bet and you call. Since he is aggressive (from his pre-flop stats at least) it's a fair call to make - see what he does next. It looks like he's flopped a fairly big hand (KX+) and is trying to give draws a bad price. At this point you can put him on any 2 pair, a set, TJ/AQ/AJ spades, any king, or a bluff. Unless you think he has a lot of bluffs (which may be the case), his current range beats you. It's fine to call and see if you can take the pot later though.

TURN You hit your two-pair and decide to do a small check raise on the turn. I don't mind this because you think you're ahead and he's likely to continue with pretty much all of his range, you don't get any new information though. You are pretty confident you're ahead: all of his king pairs are behind, as is K3/93 and his bluffs will continue too. Of course, K9, big spade draws and sets get there too so you can't be too confident.

Raising his bet looks strong, given the possible flush out there so it's hard to see many of his bluffs putting you all in. A pair of kings probably folds (or maybe calls if they hold a spade), sets probably call, as might two-pair (at least given the raise size). I would say the only hands he re-raises you all in with here are flushes or stone cold bluffs (hard for him to pull off in this spot). As it turns out he seems to have sensed weakness and put you all in with only top two - probably not a profitable play for him! Regardless, at this point you need to think if he's likely to be be bluffing as much as 35% of the time. Given that you put him on the same range you did on the flop, he's unlikely to try and turn much of that range into a bluff and it's pretty unlikely that he makes this particular 3-bet bluff with air. Sensibly you won't be getting anywhere near 35% pot odds required to call so you must fold.

Other than that you're play seems good. The small check raise isn't bad since you think you're ahead so why not get some more money in while you can? I'd probably prefer a call on the turn and keep his weaker hands betting on the river, or even leading on the turn might be better to see where you're at. Not a lot in it though just don't make that call!

Answer 2

When you see such post-flop aggression from an opponent, you want to take a look on post-flop stats like AF and specifically in what frequency this guy bets in every street. The VPIP/PFR you posted doesn't really describe his play. Although the sample you have is small; ~60 hands are not that descriptive for the play made by Villain. Personally, and because this is a cash game where you'll play the same people for many orbits, you want to build some stats before entering the Dark Tunnel (as Harrington says in his books) and face difficult situations without a clear image of your opponent. You don't really know what your opponent has and you can't guess it either since the sample is small and you don't know how this player plays. Yes, you hit a 2-pair but you hit it on the Turn, where your opponent showed strength on the flop with a strong x2.5 raise. You don't really know where you stand and you can't describe Villain as aggressive because you don't know him yet.

When i don't have history on someone, i mostly C-bet and i'm done with the hand this weak as K-rag. Remember, your intention preflop was to steal the BB, no? It didn't work, he called. Then you make a correct value bet of 3/4 and the guy not only called, he raised you. In my book, this is a fold right there, with no stats and how aggressive your opponent really is. If i had to guess, i'd guess he hit a set or a 2-pair already (K9 is very reasonable here). A hand like KQ,AK would raise you preflop, although KJ,KT,K8,K7 are easily found in a calling range of a guy that has a VPIP of about 50. That means he enters the pots with half his hands. In fact a VPIP of 50 includes all suited kings and offsuit kings above k5o. This is really not a good situation to continue with a lame king on the flop against 2 raising streets by a guy you don't know about. Build his image with more play, let this hand go on the flop. The worst hand he could have here is a better king than yours as i look the action with no post-flop stats and pure guess.

Answer 3

I don't like the raise on the SB, I would just fold this hand pre-flop, because of the bad position.

On the flop he might have a 2P or better, or be bluffing.

On the turn, your Raise is very bad, considering the logic on the flop. Since he either has you beat, or has a bluff, rereraising here will only drive out worse hands. (I guess he could also have K3 though, but that's a bit of a long shot.)

If he would've had a worse hand, a flat call on the turn might incite another bluff on the river. If he has a better hand, you minimize your losses. Of course you are normally not folding your two pair for two more bets.

Answer 4

KK, AK, and 99 would have 3 bet pre
33 might have just called

With the call on the turn it feels like 2 pr or a set of threes.

93 would not likely have called pre and K3 probably only suited.

On the turn villain is not likely on a flush draw as A9, Q9, J9, T9 spades would not likely have raised the flop.

You could be on A9, Q9, J9, T9 spades.

Yes you picked up 2 pair but based on the flop villain you have to consider villain can be on 2 pair or better.

Don't like your sizing on the turn. There is 28 in the pot and you have 95 behind. A check raise just commits you to the pot. You raised almost 1/3 your stack. Bet out like 15 and if villain shoves you have a chance to get away. If villain just calls you still have the river to put out another bet if you still think you are good. Or just check call. That 15 bet is a value bet. Villain does not want you off the hand. If he wanted to bluff you off the hand would have bet like 20-28. 2 pair cannot fold you should call. When villain shoves it was not likely a bluff as you had already priced yourself into the hand. He is putting you on 2 pr or better. What worse hand is going to shove there? At that point you can call as K3, 93, 96 is possible but that is because you priced yourself into calling. It is cheap enough to reload in micro. In a tournament for sure fold as you still have 65 BB behind.